合接の誤謬
出典: フリー百科事典『ウィキペディア（Wikipedia）』 (2022/12/04 22:54 UTC 版)
合接の誤謬（ごうせつのごびゅう、英: conjunction fallacy）もしくは連言錯誤とは、一般的な状況よりも、特殊な状況の方が、蓋然性(確からしさや発生確率)が高いと誤判断することである。リンダ問題としても知られている。形式的誤謬(formal fallacy)の一つである。"conjunction"には、合接、連言、論理積[注釈 1]などの訳語がある。行動経済学や行動科学などの分野で非常に強い影響力を有しており、主観確率における重要な概念である[1]。
注釈
- ^ 「条件Aかつ条件B」というような形。
出典
- ^ “An Intuitive Introduction to Probability University of Zurich Taught by: Karl Schmedders, Professor of Quantitative Business Administration Week1 Video: Subjective Probabilities 08:20”. 2018年6月14日閲覧。
- ^ Gould, Stephen J. (1988年). “The Streak of Streaks”. The New York Review of Books
- ^ Tversky, A. and Kahneman, D. (1982) "Judgments of and by representativeness". In D. Kahneman, P. Slovic & A. Tversky (Eds.), Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.
- ^ a b c d e f g h Tversky, Amos; Kahneman, Daniel (October 1983). “Extension versus intuitive reasoning: The conjunction fallacy in probability judgment”. Psychological Review 90 (4): 293–315. doi:10.1037/0033-295X.90.4.293.
- ^ Kahneman, Daniel. (2000). "Evaluation by moments, past and future". In Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky (Eds.). Choices, Values and Frames.
- ^ a b Kahneman, Daniel (2011). “Linda: Less is More”. Thinking, Fast and Slow. New York: Farrar, Straus and Giroux. pp. 156–165
- ^ a b Gigerenzer, Gerd (1996). “On narrow norms and vague heuristics: A reply to Kahneman and Tversky”. Psychological Review 103 (3): 592–596. doi:10.1037/0033-295X.103.3.592.
- ^ a b Hertwig, Ralph; Gigerenzer, Gerd (1999). “The ‘Conjunction Fallacy’ Revisited: How Intelligent Inferences Look Like Reasoning Errors”. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making 12: 275–305. doi:10.1002/(sici)1099-0771(199912)12:4<275::aid-bdm323>3.3.co;2-d.
- ^ a b c Mellers, B.; Hertwig, R.; Kahneman, D. (2001). “Do frequency representations eliminate conjunction effects? An exercise in adversarial collaboration”. Psychological Science 12 (4): 269–275. doi:10.1111/1467-9280.00350.
- ^ Moro, Rodrigo (2009). “On the nature of the conjunction fallacy”. Synthese 171 (1): 1–24. doi:10.1007/s11229-008-9377-8.
- ^ Tentori, Katya; Crupi, Vincenzo (2012). “On the conjunction fallacy and the meaning of and, yet again: A reply to Hertwig, Benz, and Krauss”. Cognition 122 (2): 123–134. doi:10.1016/j.cognition.2011.09.002. PMID 22079517. オリジナルの2016-05-10時点におけるアーカイブ。.
- ^ See, for example: Tentori, Katya; Bonini, Nicolao; Osherson, Daniel (2004). “The conjunction fallacy: a misunderstanding about conjunction?”. Cognitive Science 28 (3): 467–477. doi:10.1207/s15516709cog2803_8. Or: Wedell, Douglas H.; Moro, Rodrigo (2008). “Testing boundary conditions for the conjunction fallacy: Effects of response mode, conceptual focus, and problem type”. Cognition 107 (1): 105–136. doi:10.1016/j.cognition.2007.08.003. PMID 17927971.
- ^ Kahneman, Daniel; Tversky, Amos (1996). “On the reality of cognitive illusions.”. Psychological Review 103 (3): 582–591. doi:10.1037/0033-295X.103.3.582. PMID 8759048.
- ^ Oechssler, Jörg; Roider, Andreas; Schmitz, Patrick W. (2009). “Cognitive abilities and behavioral biases”. Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization 72 (1): 147–152. doi:10.1016/j.jebo.2009.04.018.
- ^ Charness, Gary; Karni, Edi; Levin, Dan (2010). “On the conjunction fallacy in probability judgment: New experimental evidence regarding Linda”. Games and Economic Behavior 68 (2): 551–556. doi:10.1016/j.geb.2009.09.003.
- ^ “The Conjunction Fallacy”. fallacyfiles.org. 2014年12月2日閲覧。
- ^ a b Gigerenzer, G. (1991). “How to make cognitive illusions disappear: Beyond ‘heuristics and biases.’”. European Review of Social Psychology 2 (1): 83–115. doi:10.1080/14792779143000033.
- ^ von Sydow, M. (2011). “The Bayesian Logic of Frequency-Based Conjunction Fallacies.”. Journal of Mathematical Psychology 55 (2): 119–139. doi:10.1016/j.jmp.2010.12.001.
[続きの解説]
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