早期警戒のパラドックス
出典: フリー百科事典『ウィキペディア（Wikipedia）』 (2022/04/25 07:24 UTC 版)
早期警戒のパラドックス（英: paradox of warning）は、正確に予測（早期警戒）するほど予測がむしろ実現しなくなるパラドックスである[1]。
- ^ "correctly determined the adversary’s intent ... resulting in changes to the adversary’s intent. This situation is known as the paradox of warning" p.Ⅰ_28 of アメリカ統合参謀本部. (2013). Joint Publication 2-0 Joint Intelligence.
- ^ "the process of action and reaction ... intelligence officer, having detected certain adversary actions and correctly determined the adversary’s intent, forecasts that the adversary is preparing to attack. The commander reacts by having friendly forces take appropriate defensive measures. However, the adversary commander detecting these actions decides attacking is no longer a desirable COA, and cancels the attack. In this example, adversary actions produced a friendly reaction resulting in changes to the adversary’s intent. This situation is known as the paradox of warning" p.Ⅰ_28 of アメリカ統合参謀本部. (2013). Joint Publication 2-0 Joint Intelligence.
- ^ "Determining adversary intent is one of the primary challenges confronting intelligence. The factor that makes analyzing intent difficult is developing judgments based upon the dynamic process of action and reaction between friendly and enemy forces." p.Ⅰ_28 of アメリカ統合参謀本部. (2013). Joint Publication 2-0 Joint Intelligence.
[続きの解説]
「早期警戒のパラドックス」の続きの解説一覧
- 1 早期警戒のパラドックスとは
- 2 早期警戒のパラドックスの概要
- 早期警戒のパラドックスのページへのリンク
