Life is one long guess. What makes this even more difficult is that there are no right answers. If guessing were easy, mind-readers would go out of business. In the old days of education, you either knew a fact or you didn't. Nowadays, a lot of exams have multiple choice questions which means you leave school highly skilled in guesswork. This isn't as bad as it sounds because most subsequent work life is also guesswork. Everyone guesses: estimating is how people with a trade guess; educated guesses are what professional people do; hopeless stabs in the dark are what statisticians do.
Guessing is done on the in breath because you're drawing in information; facts are given on the out breath because you are delivering reliable information. Plumbers guess how long a job will take on the in breath when they suck their teeth, and tell you how much it will cost on the out breath, when you suck your teeth.
When someone asks you to guess something, this is shorthand for, "I have finally found something which I know and I'm pretty confident you don't." This allows them a moment of superiority while you guess wrong. If you don't want to allow even this simple pleasure, say, "I don't do guessing." You can get equal pleasure by "guessing" right because you actually know the answer. When someone says, "You'll never guess who I bumped into," it's then actually a bit rude to make people guess. On the other hand, it's a bit rude to say, "You'll never guess so I'm going to tell you," because this makes them sound a bit thick and incapable of guessing. A compromise is to give people three guesses which lets them triangulate: way too high, way too low, third way (also wrong).
All sorts of games are based on guessing. Betting shops are where you pay money to guess wrong. In boardrooms guessing is referred to as "strategic thinking". Many people enjoy organised guessing evenings otherwise known as pub quizzes.
Guesstimates are guesses that are supposed to be a bit more accurate than finger in the air jobs. Estimesses are estimates that are disastrously wrong so haven't caught on as much (outside major construction projects).
· Guy Browning's Small Talk is at the Pleasance Theatre, Edinburgh, until August 29. Details on 0131-556 6550.