As the small flames began to lick out of the sides of the dry tinder nest cupped in the hands of the representative of the Gubbi Gubbi, or Kabi Kabi, people who lightly blew into it, the Lionesses watched on, soaking in their first taste of Australia’s rich history. A small cloud of smoke wafted from the holder’s painted hands, a welcoming, blessing of luck and warding away of bad spirits; the traditional smoking ceremony was under way.
England need some luck, but then every team bidding to stop the USA from winning a third successive Women’s World Cup title needs some luck. The tournament, which kicks off in Australia and New Zealand on Thursday 20 July is going to be the biggest and best Women’s World Cup ever – and that is not hyperbole.
The pressure of the spotlight will be intense. Fifa is targeting a record 2 billion viewers across the tournament globally, Australia’s sold-out opening match was shifted from the 45,000-capacity Sydney Football Stadium to the 83,500-capacity Stadium Australia – the Accors Stadium – to cope with demand for tickets, eight teams will compete in the tournament for the first time after it expanded from 24 to 32 sides and Fifa has raised the prize money from $30m to $110m.
In turn, the winning team will see their profile, and the women’s game in their home country, accelerate on a scale we probably cannot imagine. The prize on offer is so much more than the swirling ribbon-like trophy.
The impact of the Lionesses’ winning a first World Cup trophy would be seismic. If the Euros put them on the map as a team and individuals, a World Cup triumph would elevate them so far beyond that it is hard to envision. Their celebrity status and influence is already strong but in winning back-to-back big tournaments, the women will have done what the men have never achieved.
A tsunami of investment and sponsorships deals will inevitably sweep in, lips will be licked and wallets opened as the potential profitability of the women’s game, as close to being a sure thing as possible, gets an extraordinary moment in the sun.
There was an uplift in girls wanting to play football after the Euros - and this could skyrocket again, bolstered by the new support coming in as a result of the government’s pledge to meet the demand made by the team for equal access to sport in schools. In turn, the platform on which the Lionesses can campaign will be enormous.
Preparation is everything, but the cards have to fall your way too. Sarina Wiegman’s side sprinted to the Euro 2022 trophy last year with few obstacles thrown in their way.
Germany suffered the loss of influential Alexandra Popp to a muscle injury in the warmup before the final, Spain lost Alexia Putellas to an ACL (anterior cruciate ligament) injury before a ball was even kicked, France’s Marie-Antoinette Katoto ruptured her ACL in the group stage, and holders the Netherlands lost star striker Vivianne Miedema to Covid-19, and she looked out of sorts on her return.
Since then, though, England’s luck has started to run out. The spine of the Lionesses’ team which lifted aloft the Euro 2022 trophy has been ripped out. Beth Mead and her Arsenal teammate – and England captain – Leah Williamson were both ruled out with ACL injuries, while the dynamic and creative No 10 Fran Kirby is missing with a different knee injury. Add in the retirement of record goalscorer Ellen White and the relentless midfielder Jill Scott, and there is a lot of change.
As a result, maybe the Lionesses watching the traditional smoking ceremony breathed a little deeper, hoping to absorb some of the luck being bestowed on them by the traditional custodians of the land of south-east Queensland, or maybe they don’t view the trials of the side as bad luck at all, but just a natural part of the game.
Either way, or maybe both ways, being blessed with some good luck before the World Cup will always be very welcome.
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How badly, then, have England’s chances of a first World Cup title been hit by the absence of so many key players? We will not truly know the answer to that question until the tournament gets under way, but it is fair to say the loss is significant, and reshaping the team and getting new on-field relationships tournament-ready are perhaps the biggest challenges for the prep camp on the Sunshine Coast.
The loss of forward Mead, who last year won the Golden Boot and was runner-up to Putellas in the Golden Ball, is undoubtedly significant, but England remain stacked with attacking talent.
Lauren James, arguably the most naturally gifted English footballer since Kelly Smith, was not part of the side last summer and is vying with Chloe Kelly, the scorer of the winner in the final of the Euros, to start in Mead’s absence.
Meanwhile Bethany England and Rachel Daly are pushing to start ahead of Alessia Russo after bold club moves within the last year to earn a place in the squad and a forward role respectively. In the middle and at the back is where it is more complicated. Kirby’s boots are big ones to fill. Very few players internationally possess the vision and guile of the Chelsea forward, and she was critical to unlocking the most resilient back lines at the Euros.
Ella Toone, as a super-sub last summer, will probably be the player chosen as a direct replacement and line up alongside Georgia Stanway and Keira Walsh. The Manchester United midfielder is hugely talented but is a different type of player from Kirby, and finding a way to fill the creative hole left by her will be difficult.Then there is the back line. England’s centre-back partnership of Williamson and Millie Bright flourished under Wiegman last year. That Bright has not played since suffering a less serious knee injury in March, despite finally being back in full training, only adds to the defensive concerns.
Daly’s shift from her left-back berth at the Euros to centre-forward, after a Women’s Super League Golden Boot-winning campaign with Aston Villa, also means that at least two of England’s Euro 2022 final starting back four will be different. The injury to Williamson does not just weaken England defensively – it weakens them offensively too. The Arsenal centre-back is critical to the way the team want to play, out from the back.
Then there is the leadership void left by Williamson. Yes, there are other capable captains in the team. It will be Bright, should she be fit, or goalkeeper Mary Earps who will lead the team out in her absence. However, few others possess the natural spokesperson skills of Williamson.
Despite all these issues, England still hold perhaps the most valuable of assets: the best manager in the game in Wiegman. So their chances? Possible, but not probably – a different analysis from one you would have got in February.
If England’s stock has dipped, who are the contenders? Despite the USA being a team in transition, the holders can never be overlooked and are benefiting from being match-ready with the National Women’s Soccer League season in full swing.
Euros runners-up Germany look to be on form and have several players back from injury. France are a far more harmonious group after the replacement of manager Corinne Diacre with Hervé Renard.
Meanwhile, co-hosts Australia have a team around talismanic Sam Kerr capable of causing some real upsets. This is, perhaps for the first time in a long while, the most open Women’s World Cup ever, where any of the teams who reach the quarter-final will probably have a realistic shot at winning it.
Rather than which team looks in the best shape, the biggest question could be: who can handle that pressure?