Which American producers would suffer from ending NAFTA?

By THE DATA TEAM

MEXICO sells America more goods than America sells Mexico, and it enrages President Donald Trump. His solution is to rewrite the North American Free-Trade Agreement (NAFTA), which allows goods to flow across the Rio Grande free of tariffs. America sends almost $240bn in goods to Mexico every year. Were NAFTA to collapse, many Americans would pay a price—and not just as consumers. Which American producers would suffer?

Suppose, optimistically, that each side followed the rules of the World Trade Organisation (WTO). Then, tariffs would revert to WTO rates. By matching these tariffs to trade flows for about 5,000 goods, The Economist has estimated which states’ exporters would be worst-affected by the levies.