The EU's embrace of Turkey could drive Britain out

Europe's leaders have yet to solve the migrant crisis, so are meeting today to see if they can offload it onto someone else - namely, Turkey. Ahmet Davutoglu, the Turkish prime minister, won't go away empty-handed if he agrees to accept tens of thousands of extra refugees, as €3 billion (£2.3 billion) in aid is on offer, and Turkey's accession process to the EU would be re-energised. How will Britons feel about this as they consider their country's future in the political bloc?

Turkey's premier has already suggested that assistance getting into the EU would be his price for further help with refugees, expressing the hope that today's summit will prove a "turning point" in its joining process. Eurosceptics have made much of Turkey's potential membership, with Ukip focussing on its potential risks to European stability in a recent party political broadcast. They argue that the UK's borders would be open to Turkey's rapidly growing population if it remains in the EU, and its influence would be diluted in the European Parliament.

Others, like David Davis, have dwelt on its potential security threat, warning that Turkey would give Isil terrorists an easy way into Europe as it has a porous border with Syria and Iraq. "This demonstrates only too clearly why our membership of the EU, far from improving our security, actually puts it at greater risk," the former Shadow Home Secretary concluded.

Polls show that these critics are striking a chord with voters, who tend to be opposed to Turkey joining the EU. A survey in 2013 by YouGov found that 52 per cent of voters felt it shouldn't be allowed to join the political bloc, and there is little sign that this unease has disappeared over recent years.

When Survation asked voters last December about the decision by European leaders to relax visa restrictions for Turkish citizens in exchange for their country's help with the migrant crisis, 58.8 per cent said that they did "not make the correct decision".

The wheels are already in motion for Turkey's introduction into the EU, as it was declared eligible to join back in 1997, with accession negotiations kicking off in 2005. However human rights issues have delayed talks, and they have not gone away. On Friday police raided the offices of Zaman, a top-selling newspaper critical of the government, with officers using tear gas and water cannon to break up protesters and enter the building

Such events are a vivid reminder of the issues still afflicting Turkey under President Erdogan, with the European Commission singling out the country's human rights record and poor governance as reasons for its delayed accession. "Turkey's track record in the fight against corruption remains inadequate. Corruption remains widespread", the Commission warned in November, while noting that the enforcement of European human rights "is not fully ensured".

Europhiles point out in response to Eurosceptic alarm about Turkey that the Commission has made clear that no new countries will join the EU until at least 2020. Any new joiners require the unanimous agreement of member states, so it could be blocked by the UK. But this looks unlikely given how David Cameron has spoken about Turkey, making his first official visit as Prime Minister to Ankara - where he said: "I'm here to make the case for Turkey's membership of the EU. And to fight for it." He made clear last October to MPs that he still backed Turkey's eventual membership,

EU leaders have stuck firmly to the line that Turkey would only join in a few years, but they could end up doing more to help them on their way in reward for their assistance with the migration crisis. If this happens, many Britons who are already nervous about what Turkey's membership would mean for the EU would look at Brexit with renewed interest.