In retaliation for Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan last week, China conducted large-scale military exercises around the self-governing island democracy and suspended some trade between the sides.

为了报复美国众议院议长佩洛西访台，中国在这个民主自治的岛屿周围举行了大规模军事演习，并暂停了海峡两岸的部分贸易往来。

The exercises led to a few shipping disruptions, but they did not affect traffic at Taiwanese or Chinese ports, analysts say. And the trade bans were notable mainly for what they did not target: Taiwan’s increasingly powerful semiconductor industry, a crucial supplier to Chinese manufacturers.

分析人士称，虽然军演导致了一些航运中断，但并未影响台湾或中国港口的海上交通。而贸易禁令的主要令人瞩目之处是其未针对的领域：台湾影响力越来越大的半导体产业，那是中国制造商的关键供应商。

The bans that Beijing did impose — on exports of its natural sand to Taiwan, and on imports of all Taiwanese citrus fruits and two types of fish — were hardly an existential threat to the island off its southern coast that it claims as Chinese territory.

中国政府实施的禁令包括禁止向台湾出口天然砂，禁止从台湾进口所有柑橘类水果和两种鱼，这些禁令对这个位于中国南部沿海、中国称之为领土的岛屿几乎没有构成生存威胁。

“China’s ban on citrus didn’t really affect us,” said Syu Man, a manager for a fruit exporter in southern Taiwan that ships a type of pomelo across East Asia, primarily to Japan. “We don’t depend on the Chinese market.”

“中国大陆对柑橘的限制没有太影响我们，”台湾南部一家水果出口商经理许曼说，这家出口商运往东亚的产品是一种柚子，主要市场是日本。“我们不怎么依赖中国市场的。”

China is Taiwan’s largest trading partner, yet Beijing’s options for punishing the island’s economy are somewhat limited. That’s because the most extreme measures it could take — like a semiconductor ban, or a full blockade of Taiwanese ports — would surely backfire on the Chinese economy.

中国是台湾最大的贸易伙伴，但北京方面惩罚台湾经济的措施在一定程度上是有限的。这是因为中国可能采取的最极端措施——比如禁止半导体进口或对台湾港口进行全面的封锁——肯定会给自身经济带来不良后果。

For all of Beijing’s “venting” over Ms. Pelosi’s visit, China’s relations with Taiwan may well return to normal within two or three months, said William Choong, a political scientist at the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute in Singapore.

新加坡尤索夫伊萨东南亚研究院的政治专家钟伟伦说，尽管北京针对佩洛西的访问进行了种种“发泄”，但中国与台湾的关系也许会在两三个月内恢复正常。

“For China to effect punitive economic measures and sanctions on Taiwan would be akin to cutting off your nose to spite your face,” he said.

“中国对台湾实施惩罚性经济措施和制裁会害人害己，”他说。

The trade bans announced last week were a reminder to Taiwanese exporters that doing business with China during periods of high geopolitical tension carries risks. Recent bans have targeted Taiwanese pineapples, wax apples and grouper fish, among other products.

上周宣布的贸易禁令再次提醒台湾出口商，在地缘政治高度紧张时期与中国做生意存在风险。此前的已经将台湾的菠萝、莲雾和石斑鱼等产品列为目标。

Still, the latest measures are unlikely to be especially painful for an economy that is roughly the size of Switzerland’s and features a sophisticated manufacturing base.

尽管如此，对于一个经济规模与瑞士大致相当、拥有先进制造业基础的经济体来说，中国的新一轮措施不太可能给它带来特别大的痛苦。

“The political message is greater than the economic hit,” said Chiao Chun, a former trade negotiator for the Taiwanese government.

“（禁令）释放的政治讯息比经济影响要大，”曾在台湾政府担任贸易谈判代表的焦钧说。

Even though about 90 percent of Taiwan’s imported gravel and sand comes from China, most of that is manufactured. China accounted for only about 11 percent of Taiwan’s natural sand imports in the first half of this year, according to the Bureau of Mines.

尽管台湾进口的砾石和沙子中约有90%来自中国，但其中的大部分是人造的。据台湾矿务局的数据，今年上半年，中国仅占天然砂进口11%左右。

The two types of Taiwanese fish exports that China restricted last week — chilled white striped hairtail and frozen horse mackerel — are collectively worth about $22 million, less than half the value of the Taiwanese grouper trade that was banned earlier this year. They are also less dependent on the Chinese market.

中国上周禁止进口的两种台湾鱼类——冰鲜白带鱼和冻竹荚鱼——总值约为2200万美元，不到今年早些时候禁止进口的台湾石斑鱼贸易额的一半。这两种鱼也不太依赖中国市场。

As for Taiwan’s half-a-billion-dollar citrus industry, its shipments to China account for only 1.1 percent of the island’s total agricultural exports, according to Taiwan’s Agriculture Council. A popular theory is that Beijing singled out citrus farmers because most orchards are in southern Taiwan, a stronghold for the governing political party, the Democratic Progressive Party, a longtime target of Beijing’s anger.

据台湾农业委员会的数据，就台湾价值5亿美元的柑橘产业而言，其对中国的出口仅占台湾农业出口总额的1.1%。人们普遍认为的一个理论是，北京之所以选择柑橘种植者，是因为大多数柑橘园在台湾南部，执政的民进党在那里势力强大，北京的愤怒长期以来一直针对的是民进党。

Future bans may become more targeted to punish industries in counties that are D.P.P. strongholds, said Thomas J. Shattuck, an expert on Taiwan at the University of Pennsylvania’s Perry World House. There may also be less retaliation against counties run by the Kuomintang opposition party “in an attempt to put a finger on the scale for Taiwan’s local, and even national, elections,” he added.

宾夕法尼亚大学佩里世界问题中心的台湾问题专家善学(Thomas J. Shattuck)表示，中国未来的禁令可能会更有针对性地惩罚民进党据点县的产业。他还说，中国对反对党——国民党控制的县的报复可能会减少，“以试图影响台湾的地方选举，甚至是全岛范围的选举。”

The citrus and fish bans are part of a Chinese clampdown on Taiwanese food products that has accelerated this year. As of last week, the Chinese authorities had suspended the export licenses of about two-thirds of the 3,000-plus Taiwanese food producers that had been allowed to export to China, according to a review of official customs data. Several exporters said in interviews that many of the suspensions came in late June.

柑橘和鱼类的进口禁令是中国今年加速制裁台湾食品行业的一部分。据记者查阅的官方海关数据，截至上周，中国海关已暂停了3000多家获准向中国出口的台湾食品生产商中约三分之二的出口许可证。几家出口商在接受采访时说，许多许可证是今年6月下旬被暂停的。

But not all of those businesses are terribly worried.

但这些出口商中并不是每家都很担心。

One company that was affected by China’s export restrictions, ChiaTe Pastry in Taipei, said it had never sent any products to that market in the first place. Another business, Huang Yuan Sing Pastry in New Taipei City, said its license to export products — including its signature five nuts cake — was among those suspended recently. But China accounted for only a small fraction of its profits anyway, an employee said, and the share has been declining during the pandemic.

受中国进口限制影响的台北嘉德糕饼有限公司称，它从未向中国市场发送过任何产品。另一家位于新北市的黄源兴糕饼公司说，公司向中国出口产品——包括标志性产品五仁酥饼——的许可证最近被暂停。但对中国的出口本来在公司利润中就只占一小部分，一名工作人员说，而且在新冠病毒大流行期间，该占比一直在下降。

In the seafood sector, the export licenses of half the 84 companies in the Taiwan Frozen Seafood Industries Association have also been suspended since July, said Tzu-zung Wu, the group’s general secretary. But many of them had registered in the mainland only because they wanted the option of expanding their business there at some point in the future, she added.

在海鲜行业，台湾水产工业同业公会的84家公司中，已有一半的出口许可证自今年7月以来被中国暂停，该组织的秘书长吴姿容说。她还表示，这些公司中有许多家在大陆申请许可证，只是因为它们想在未来某个时候在那里扩展业务。

“It does not mean that they are dependent on the Chinese market,” Ms. Wu said.

“这并不意味它们依赖中国大陆的市场，”吴女士说。

China’s decision not to ban Taiwanese manufacturing exports, particularly semiconductors, is consistent with a “highly selective” strategy of economic retaliation, said Christina Lai, a research fellow at Academia Sinica, Taiwan’s top research academy.

中国不禁止从台湾进口制造业产品，尤其是半导体产品的决定与“高度选择性”的经济报复战略相符，台湾中央研究院政治学研究所的赖润瑶说。

“As of now, China’s coercive measures seem symbolic in nature,” Ms. Lai said.

“到目前为止，中国迫胁措施的性质似乎是象征性的，”赖润瑶说。

The island’s semiconductor industry is an increasingly indispensable node in the global supply chains for smartphones, cars and other keystones of modern life. One producer, the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, makes roughly 90 percent of the world’s most advanced semiconductors, and sells them to both China and the West.

半导体是智能手机、汽车和其他现代生活离不开的东西，而台湾的半导体产业在全球供应链中正变得越来越不可或缺。仅台积电一家就生产了世界上大约90%的最先进半导体产品，并将其销往中国和西方。

Mr. Shattuck, the University of Pennsylvania analyst, said Beijing would consider that industry “off limits” during future crises or bouts of economic retaliation for a simple reason: China needs Taiwanese semiconductors as much as other countries do.

宾夕法尼亚大学的分析人士善学说，中国政府在未来的危机或经济报复回合中把半导体行业“排除在外”，原因很简单：中国和其他国家一样需要台湾的半导体产品。

“If Beijing truly believes that it can squeeze Taiwan into reunification via military pressure and short of an invasion, then a strong and healthy Taiwanese semiconductor industry would boost China’s economy in an eventual ‘unified’ P.R.C.,” he said, referring to the People’s Republic of China.

“如果北京真的相信它能靠军事压力而不是入侵来迫使台湾与大陆实现统一的话，一个强大、健康的台湾半导体产业将在最终‘统一’的中华人民共和国中起推动经济的作用，”他说。

The limits of China’s economic pressure campaign were on display last week as its military conducted four days of drills that simulated a blockade of Taiwan.

上周，随着中国军队进行了为期四天的模拟对台封锁演习，中国在经济上对台湾施压的局限性已显露出来。

Even though some of the exercises took place in the Taiwan Strait, a key artery for international shipping, they did not disrupt access to ports in Taiwan or southern China, said Tan Hua Joo, an analyst at Linerlytica, a company in Singapore that tracks data on the container shipping industry. He added that port congestion would build only if the strait was completely blocked, port access was restricted or port operations were hampered by a labor or equipment shortage.

新加坡一家追踪集装箱运输行业数据的公司Linerlytica的分析师陈华朱（音）说，虽然中国的部分军演是在国际航运的一条重要水路——台湾海峡进行的，但军演并没有中断船只进入台湾或中国南部的港口。他还说，只是在海峡完全被封锁、港口出入受到限制或港口运营因劳动力或设备短缺受阻碍，才会出现港口拥堵问题。

“None of these are happening at the moment,” he said.

“这些情况目前都没有发生，”他说。

Vessels that chose to avoid the Taiwan Strait last week because of the Chinese military’s “chest beating” activities would have faced a 12- to 18-hour delay, an inconvenience that would generally be considered manageable, said Niels Rasmussen, the chief shipping analyst at Bimco, an international shipping association.

上周，因中国军队的“展示雄风”活动而选择避开台湾海峡的船只会面临12至18小时的行程延误，这通常被视为可控的不便，国际航运协会Bimco的首席航运分析师尼尔斯·拉斯穆森 说。

If Beijing were to escalate tensions in the future, it would indicate that it was willing to put at risk China’s own economy as well as its trade and relations with Japan, South Korea, Europe and the United States, Mr. Rasmussen said by phone from his office near Copenhagen.

如果北京未来加剧紧张局势，那将意味着，中国政府愿意将自身的经济，以及中国与日本、韩国、欧洲和美国的贸易以及关系置于风险之中，拉斯穆森在他位于哥本哈根附近的办公室接受电话采访时说。

“That’s just difficult to accept that they would take that decision,” he added. “But then again, I didn’t expect Russia to invade Ukraine.”

“很难想象他们会做出那样的决定，”他补充道。 “但话说回来，我也没想到俄罗斯会入侵乌克兰。”