There is no alternative base for the UK's nuclear deterrent than its existing sites in Scotland, leaving it with the prospect of having nowhere to go should Scots vote for independence.
That is the conclusion of a detailed study to be published on Monday on what is emerging as a huge question for defence chiefs. They are only now beginning to face the consequences of a possible future Scottish parliament voting to get rid of the Trident nuclear weapons bases at Coulport and Faslane.
Asked during the referendum debate in the Scottish parliament last week whether the government of an independent Scotland would do a deal to keep Trident, the first minister Alex Salmond replied: "It is inconceivable that an independent nation of 5.25m people would tolerate the continued presence of weapons of mass destruction on its soil."
His comments seemed to be directed at senior British defence officials figures who have suggested that they could negotiate a treaty allowing the Trident missiles, warheads, and submarines, to remain in Scotland.
The study, by John Ainslie of the Campaign for Nuclear Disarmament, concludes that there are no viable alternatives. Possible sites including Devonport, Barrow (where the submarines are built), Portland, Falmouth and Milford Haven were all discounted in a secret study by the Ministry of Defence in 1963 when the government was searching for sites to base its Polaris nuclear fleet, Trident's predecessor, the study shows. They are even less viable now for environmental, cost and other pragmatic reasons, Ainslie says.
Moving Trident to the US or France would not be viable, because the nuclear non-proliferation treaty would prevent the UK from using existing facilities there and new ones would have to be built.
Philip Hammond, the defence secretary, has suggested that Scotland would be forced to pay towards the costs of relocating Trident. "These are idle threats," says the report. "Following the collapse of the Soviet Union, the Ukraine, Belarus and Kazakhstan found themselves as independent countries with large numbers of nuclear weapons. It is ridiculous to suggest that these three countries should each have paid Russia to build new nuclear silos."
Kate Hudson, the general secretary of CND, said: "Trident is at a dead end, strategically and economically. Now we can add 'geographically' to the list too, as Ministry of Defence sources have confirmed CND's analysis: that there 'simply isn't anywhere else' for Trident to go. This detailed report, based on previous government assessments of alternative locations for Trident, comes to the same logical conclusion."
Alex Salmond yesterday rejected suggestions that voters should be asked in the referendum on Scottish independence if they want to leave the UK. The Scottish first minister said it would "confuse the issue" because the country would still retain the Queen as head of state if it were to break the political union.
