Having grown up in politics, Mr Cameron and Mr Osborne seem incapable of thinking beyond it. Thus the tricksiness of their policies—the token cap on welfare spending, designed to embarrass Labour; the chimeric tax cuts, which leave few people better off. If this approach achieves short-term political hits, it does not tell sceptical voters they are led by high-minded people.
And this damaging fixation with tradecraft is self-perpetuating—because the Tory leaders, even more than their rivals, promote colleagues with a similar approach. Mr Osborne has built a network of such protégées—he calls them “the club”—including Matthew Hancock, Nicky Morgan and Sajid Javid, Ms Miller’s successor. Derided by jealous colleagues as lackeys, these rising stars are equally defined by their Osborne-ite view of politics as a game clever people play. More obviously talented, yet less biddable, Tories—including Rory Stewart, Margot James and Nadhim Zahawi—languish outside the club. That is self-defeating. To enthuse voters, party leaders need to promote engaging representatives. The fact that Britain’s few charismatic politicians—Mr Johnson, Mr Farage and the Scottish nationalist leader Alex Salmond—are outside Parliament is symptomatic of this failure ...
The risks of promoting awkward talent and sacking the spin doctor are obvious; Mr Johnson and Mr Farage illustrate them with their mishaps and scandals, almost on a monthly basis. But the alternative to a looser, bolder and more outward-looking politics, as voter turnout falls and fringe groups rise, is worse. It is to become ever more ingenious, hated and irrelevant.
In the 2014 elections, a three-way tie with Ukip and the Tories with about 24 per cent of the vote would yield Labour 20-22 seats – and Labour should be able to hope for more than that, although the party will not get the sort of 38-40 per cent support it enjoys in national polls because some normally Labour voters tend to support smaller parties such as the Greens in European elections. The two members of the European parliament elected in 2009 under the banner of the British National party will almost certainly be defeated, so whatever else happens there is some good news to come from these elections. The results in Scotland will no doubt be analysed (probably overanalysed) for what they might tell us about the independence referendum.
When looking for the political message from a set of local elections there are two key measurements. One is the area where the elections are taking place, and the other is what happened the last time the seats were contested. The 2013 county elections took place disproportionately in Tory England, while the battleground in 2014 is more on Labour’s turf in London, the metropolitan boroughs and a scatter of unitary and district councils (there will also be local elections for Northern Ireland’s 11 new local authorities).
Labour’s performance in 2010, in contrast with the 2009 elections, was not too bad. The higher turnout caused by having the general election on the same day as the local elections meant that Labour did not suffer from differential turnout because its supporters are harder to get to the polls. The party’s local election gains in London were stronger than expected, helped by the relatively low general election swing in the capital. Labour gained control in 10 London boroughs, adding to its successful defence of the seven councils whose majorities survived the bad results in 2006. Controlling 17 of the 32 boroughs is a similar result to previous reasonably good years like 1986, 1994 and 1998. Labour has limited room for expansion in 2014 in terms of gaining control of new councils.
Poisonous’, was the picture painted by one former senior advisor. ‘Dysfunctional,’ said one shadow cabinet member. ‘A bunch of medieval courtiers, not an office,’ said another. The most positive description I could get was ‘It’s a work in progress. They’re learning. Slowly. But they are learning.’
But however poisonous and dysfunctional the court of Miliband the Younger may be, either by fluke or design, they have clearly managed to get some things right. It was this team that secured the Labour leadership against the odds. It was this team that has fashioned a small – though shrinking – opinion poll lead. And it is this team the bookies still have as favorites to win the 2015 general election.
Britain’s top job in Brussels must go to someone who is a political heavyweight, is popular in the UK and who speaks another European language, according to a secret Number 10 memo.
The document, which has been passed to David Cameron, the prime minister, and Nick Clegg, his deputy, outlines Whitehall’s view of the qualities needed in the UK’s next EU commissioner, a pivotal role for Mr Cameron’s European reform policy.
The note has been seen by a handful of people at the top of the coalition and for the first time gives a sense of the type of person Mr Cameron is likely to appoint later this year.
It calls for someone who already has a political reputation in the UK, which would all but rule out the business leaders that some believe should get the job. John Cridland, head of the CBI employers group, for example, would not fit this bill.
And George Parker in the FT says possible candidates include Andrew Lansley, David Willetts, Peter Lilley, Andrew Mitchell and David Lidington.
Mr Lansley’s unabrasive style might be well suited to the Berlaymont headquarters of the commission, but his ability to get bogged down in complex dossiers was highlighted when, as health secretary, he attempted to reform the NHS.
David Willetts, the German-speaking science minister nicknamed “two brains” for his intellect, is well regarded in Downing Street, has an emollient style and is also liked by the Liberal Democrats.
Peter Lilley, a ministerial veteran of the Thatcher era, is popular in the Tory party and is on the moderate end of the eurosceptic scale. At the age of 70, a move to Brussels would be a dramatic final chapter in his political career.
An analysis by the Labour party says that 70 per cent of free schools were still not full two years after their opening and that as a result the Government is funding free schools for 1,500 more pupils than are actually attending.
In addition, the party cites a National Audit Office report which claims that two thirds of free school places were not in an area in most need of primary school places at a time when official estimates say an extra 240,000 places are needed by this September, as a boom in the birth rate works its way into schools. However, officials from the Department for Education denied this.
A long-delayed report on the Iraq war is unlikely to see the light of day until after the next general election, according to well-placed sources.
Despite growing anger over the wait for publication of Sir John Chilcot’s investigation into the 2003 conflict, it is now not expected to be ready until early next year.
Whitehall sources suggest that with an election due in May 2015, it will be deemed too politically difficult to publish it until after voters have gone to the polls.
Although residents of Cornwall have never faced the same levels of cruel humour as their Celtic counterparts in Wales, Ireland and Scotland, they have been awarded official minority status by the Government.
Danny Alexander, the Chief Secretary to the Treasury, will announce on a visit to Bodmin that Cornish people will for the first time receive the same rights and protections as other “national minorities” in Britain.
The Cornish will be added to a Council of Europe agreement governing how minorities should be treated, meaning the government must agree to “combat discrimination and promote equality”.
The move does not mean that Cornish people will be awarded special legal status, however.
A government spokesman said it would still be up to the courts to rule on whether the Cornish should be treated as a “racial group” under the Equality Act.
The election on the 22 May is about one thing: do you think Britain is better off in the EU, or do you think we should be out? Finally the big question at the heart of the European debate is being addressed. At long last someone is taking on the Eurosceptic establishment – and it’s us.
Ukip and others have been allowed to peddle their myths unchallenged for decades, claiming that all of our problems would magically disappear if the UK just left the EU. But it’s a dangerous fantasy. It’s the surest way to jeopardise jobs, risk our fragile economic recovery, and it will leave Britain alone and diminished in the world.
We may not have a Lib Dem European election campaign launch yet, but we do have the Labour rebuttal. Jon Ashworth, the shadow Cabinet Office minister, has put out this statement on behalf of the party.
Nick Clegg’s promises aren’t worth the paper they’re written on. At the last election the Lib Dems promised to scrap tuition fees only to treble them. They promised not to increase VAT and then did so. And they promised fair taxes only to support the Tories in giving millionaires a tax cut paid for by hardworking families. You can’t trust a word he says.
A vote for the Liberal Democrats in these elections is a vote for a record of broken promises and support for a party which has chosen to back David Cameron’s Tories all the way. Only Labour will make Britain better off.
Overall crime in England and Wales fell by 15% in 2013, according to statistics released today.
That's the figure from the crime survey, which measures people's experience of crime, not the number of crimes recorded by the police. On that measure crime was only down 2%.
I left out Clegg's line about visiting McDonalds, but the Mirror's Jason Beattie (recalling, perhaps, that Clegg also backed David Moyes) has spotted some significance in it.
Here are the main points from Nick Clegg's phone-in,
Clegg said he favoured the disestablishment of the Church of England.
My personal view ... is in the long run having the state and the church basically bound up with each other, as we do in this country - in the long run it would be better for the church, and better for people of faith, and better for Anglicans, if the church and the state were over time to stand on their own two separate feet. But that's not going to happen overnight for sure.
He defended David Cameron's decision to call Britain a Christian country.
I'm not a man of faith, but I don't actually find it particularly controversial to say that if you just look at our history, our heritage, our architecture, our values, of course it's infused by Christianity. In many ways I was slightly non-plussed by people getting very worked up about it.
Clegg said Britons who return to the UK radicalised by fighting with the rebels in Syria now represented "one of the biggest security problems we face as a country".
I don't think we should underestimate the gravity of this now. The security threat to us as a country, on British streets, British towns, British cities, British communities, of people going to Syria and coming back radicalised with violent intentions is now one of the biggest security problems we face as a country. It is something the prime minister, myself and other senior members of the government are very focused on.
He declined to describe the controversial Ukip European election posters as "racist". Instead he described them as "based on falsehoods". This is what he said when asked if he say them as racist.
The words I would use is they're based on falsehoods, they're based on false claims, and fear.
He said it was "disingenuous" for Ukip to claim that they were standing up for British jobs.
If you actually did what Ukip want, which is to pull us out of the world's largest economy, I tell you the one thing that would happen, like night follows day, is there would be more unemployment in this country. And I find it - disingenuous is about the politest term I can use to describe the two-faced way in which Ukip says they're standing up for British jobs, but they actually want to destroy British jobs.
There are thousands of people who have benefited from access to drugs which have not been sanctioned for use in the NHS by Nice through the cancer drugs fund that the coalition government has set up.
He said he thought Michael Gove, the education secretary, was wrong to allow people without teaching qualifications, or who are not seeking teaching qualifications, to teach in schools. (This is one of the growing number of areas where Labour and Lib Dems policies are converging.)
He said he thought Manchester United should not have sacked David Moyes.
I have got some sympathy for Moyes ... Any change after such a huge figure like [Sir Alex] Ferguson, and he's got an ageing squad, was going to be a really tall order for anyone ... Personally I think they should have held on to him.
My colleague Patrick Wintour, who knows a lot more about football than me (not difficult), has posted this response on Twitter.
So, Nick Clegg has called for the disestablishment of the Church of England.
Given that he could not even get Britain to adopt AV [the alternative vote], that is probably not a constitutional reform that is likely to take place anytime soon. Clegg himself virtually admitted that.
Q: How important is it for people to tell the authorities about people going to Syria to fight?
Clegg says this is very important. Having people come back to the UK from Syria having been radicalised is a serious threat, he says.
Q: But why should mums know about their sons doing this?
Clegg says it is right for the police and the security services to ask people to look out for signs that people might want to go to Syria to fight. They could become someone who seeks to do harm, he says.
Q: Do you agree that David Cameron's comment about Britain being a Christian country is asinine. I voted for Cameron, but I won't again after this.
Clegg says he is not a man of faith. But he does not see what is wrong with saying Britain has an important Christian heritage. He could not see why that was controversial.
But that is not to say we are exclusively Christian. We are tolerant and open to people of all faiths, he says.
He says in the long run having the state and the church bound up with each other is wrong. It would be better if they were separate, he says. But that is not going to happen soon.
Q: But you don't need to be a Christian to be tolerant?
Q: Where Manchester United right to sack David Moyes?
Clegg says he has some sympathy for Moyes. Replacing Alex Ferguson was always going to be difficult. Speaking personally, he thinks they should have kept Moyes.
Clegg says he cannot think of a more important profession than teaching.
But holding a strike would cause "huge stress" to parents and children, he says.
He says, unlike Michael Gove, he thinks teachers should be qualified, or seeking qualification.
There are disputes with the teachers, he says, especially around pensions. But the government has given head teachers more freedom, introduced the pupil premium and slimmed down the curriculum. He hopes these measures will encourage more people to go into teaching.
Q: When RMT ran a campaign warning about immigrants taking British jobs, you said nothing. But you have attacked Ukip for making similar claims. Why?
Clegg says Ukip claim they are standing up for British jobs. But their policies would destroy jobs. He says this is "disingenous". He says "David Miliband", and then corrects himself to say "Ed Miliband", has not made that case. It is "astonishing" that Ukip have the brass neck to claim they are standing up for jobs.
Q: Do you think the Ukip posters are racist?
Clegg says the way he would put it would be by saying the posters are based on falsehoods and fear.
Clegg says he's assuming the caller employs women. The caller confirms he does. Clegg says he wants more flexibility. If men are doing more childcare, then women are more likely to come back from maternity leave early. The current arrangements offer no flexibility. Mums have to do "all the heavy lifting" at home. Giving mums and dads the freedom how to divide up parental leave entitlement is a good thing, he says.
The government's plan does not extend the statutory leave entitlement, he says. It just ensures that men and women can share it.
Q: But if someone is off for more than three or four weeks, it is hard to replace them.
Clegg says he does not think he and the caller will agree. the government consulted with employers on this, he says.
If one person can take a long period of time off, he does not see how it is more disruptive for two people to take shorter periods off.
Earlier the caller said men were more likely to be in senior positions. Clegg says that's partly because the current maternity leave arrangements make it difficult for women to advance in the workplace.
Nick Ferrari says, when LBC discussed this yesterday, people said this illustrated why the aid budget should be cut.
Clegg says many people feel that it is right that Britain spends money on people in Syria, where there is a humanitarian catastrophe of huge proportions. They are some of the most wretched people on the planet, he says.
Q: When young mums are dying, do you think people would still rather see money go to Malawi?
Clegg says that is why the government set up the cancer drugs fund. It can fund drugs not approved by Nice. It has helped thousands and thousands of people, he says.
Clegg says he understands people's feelings about this. Nice [the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence] has issued a proposal on this. But it is only a matter for consultation at this stage. It is not the end of the road, he says. He says he hopes the government can find a way forward.
Q: But the NHS does spend stuff frivolously. People don't die of having small breasts. But they die from cancer?
Clegg says this is a difficult dilemma. Nice takes decisions on this. But, even if Nice decides not to approve a drug, the government's cancer drugs fund can fund these treatments.
It's going to be a Nick Clegg morning. As usual, I expect the comments BTL will light up with joy and gratitude.
Clegg is hosting his Call Clegg LBC phone-in. And then he is launching the Lib Dem European election campaign. I will be covering Call Clegg in detail, but the election launch is in Colchester, I'm not, and so for that I will be reliant on Twitter, emails, the wires etc. But we know the thrust of what Clegg is going to say because the Lib Dems have released extracts from his speech in advance. He will say the Lib Dems are the only party standing up for Britain's membership of the EU.
The fight is on. The isolationists are not going to get a free run of this debate any more – not when there’s so much at stake. Every gain they make on 22 May takes Britain a step closer to European exit and they need to be stopped. We need Liberal Democrats elected to the European Parliament where we can do what’s right for Britain.
If not us, who? The Labour Party? The Conservatives? Where are they? What are they doing to stop the populists and the xenophobes? Nothing. Ed Miliband and David Cameron are now officially Missing in Action – saying the bare minimum in this debate because they are too scared of losing votes to Nigel Farage; because they’re so desperate to cover up the deep divisions in their own camps.
Well the Liberal Democrats aren’t scared to speak up. We are Britain’s party of IN and we are standing up for staying in Europe – loudly, passionately and unequivocally – because that is how we keep this nation stronger, safer and richer too.
Here's the agenda for the day.
9am: Nick Clegg hosts his LBC phone-in.
9.30am: Quarterly crime statistics are released.
10.45am: Clegg launches the Lib Dem European election campaign with a rally in Colchester.
12pm: Clegg holds a public Q&A in Colchester.
I'm afraid I have to wrap up at lunchtime because I need to be in HQ (again) for a meeting this afternoon. Normal service will be resumed next week. But, until then, as usual, I will also be flagging up any breaking political news, posting summaries with a round-up of all the day’s developments, and highlighting the most interesting political articles on the web.
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