The writer tried the time series analysis of the seasonal disease, beriberi, to find out the type of the seasonal periodicity by means of auto-correlation method applying the cyclic distribution.
1) Analysis by means of auto-correlation method ; She calculated the autocerrelation coefficient of the death rates of beriberi in 5 yeas, 1926 to 1930, and drew correloraznnl using the cocfficint.
There is a clearr period of 12 months which has wide amplitude in the curves of four cities in Kansai district and of two cities in Kanto district.
While in the cities of Southern Kyushu and Hokkaido, there are two periods; one is the period of 12 months with wide amplitude and the other is the small period of 6 months, however not so clear.
2) Means of appling the cyclic distribution a The writer tried to express the seasonal death curve of beriberi by composition of t wv o periods, which have one. year normal cyclic distribution. The phase of the second period however slips down by half a year. The first period was supposed to have the cause of outbreak in summer while the second in winter.
The temporal distribution curve of beriberi death rate is expressed by
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In the cases Osaka city and Fuk _??_ ka city, the writer calculated the value of constants. Next if she calculate, using the debern-dned constats, nthe monthly death rates of beriberi in these cities as the actual value, she can get the distribution curve shown in the graph and find out that the actual measurement coincides with calculation well.
Judging from the above-mentioned facts, there will be some reason easy to cause beriberi death even in winter in some district. Concerning the correlogramm and the type of distribution curve, of beriberi deaths, there can be seen a considerable regional difference as was referred in this report. The writer will publish another study on the question of medical geography what environmental factors are the cause of this regional difference.
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