Legendary and Warner Bros.' $150 million-budgeted Pokémon: Detective Pikachu, starring Ryan Reynolds as the voice of the title character and Justice Smith as the human protagonist, topped the Friday box office, earning $20.7 million. That includes $5.7 million in Thursday previews. Whether or not it tops Walt Disney's Avengers: Endgame for the weekend, it has the best Thursday preview gross and the best Friday/opening day gross for any video game flick. It is just a bit larger than the $18 million opening day of Angelina Jolie’s Tomb Raider from back in 2001. With a likely over/under $55 million weekend, it should open well above Tomb Raider’s $47 million Fri-Sun opening frame.
That would give Pokémon: Detective Pikachu the biggest opening weekend ever for a video game movie. Adjusted for inflation, Tomb Raider’s opening day (in a time way before 3-D or PLF auditoriums) would be $28 million. Its $47 million Fri-Sun opening weekend would be $75 million adjusted. If Detective Pikachu can open above $55 million, it’ll be past the inflation-adjusted debuts of both Mortal Kombat ($23 million in 1995/$48 million adjusted) and Pokémon: The First Movie ($31 million Fri-Sun/$51 million Wed-Sun in 1999/$55 million and $90 million adjusted). Inflation and 3-D bumps should be taken into account, but it should also be noted that Avengers: Endgame kept most of the biggest and best auditoriums this weekend.
That’s not a deal breaker, but that may be part of why the opening may end up closer to Shazam! than Venom. Speaking of which, if the movie plays like Shazam! (without that DC Films flick’s $3.3 million-worth of sneak previews), we’re looking at a $55 million Fri-Sun debut, which is on the low end of “just fine, thank you.” However, if the kid-friendly comedic fantasy legs it like Kong: Skull Island, then we’re looking at a $63 million opening. The other issue, at least in terms of why it didn’t explode this weekend, is that this may be a case where general audience curiosity and online interest didn’t quite over-index in terms of consumer activity.
While the reviews were generally positive (it’s the first video game movie to score a “fresh” on Rotten Tomatoes), they weren’t superlative and weren’t comparable to, for example, The LEGO Movie five years ago. I’m expecting legs, as the movie is good fun for kids and their parents, but it’s possible that too many older moviegoers couldn’t be convinced to indulge in what was clearly a kid-targeted Pokémon movie. This is still a strong result for a film may become the biggest video game flick ever. It’s on par (relatively speaking) with the $50 million debut of The Great Gatsby in 2013 and the $48 million launch of Troy on this same weekend in 2004.
It won’t approach Star Trek’s $79 million launch in 2009, but A) that was an exception for this specific weekend and B) folks enjoy Endgame more than they enjoyed Van Helsing in 2004 and X-Men Origins: Wolverine in 2009. It earned an A- from CinemaScore and played 59% male, 49% under-25 and 27% under-18. We’ll see where it ends up tomorrow, (it has earned $63 million worldwide thus far), but it’s a promising domestic launch even if the hype may have peaked too early. I wrong in thinking that this one could go bonkers bananas this weekend, but that’s on me, not the movie. I may take my “too young for a press screening” son to a Saturday matinee. If so, I’ll let you know what he thinks.
