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Discussion
North Dakota’s population
grew only slightly over the past decade. Data from the 2000 Census
indicate that the state grew by 0.5 percent between 1990 and 2000
reaching a population base of 642,200. This is the smallest relative
growth of all 50 states. Beginning in 2000, Census Bureau estimates
indicate that North Dakota’s population declined annually,
reaching 633,051 in 2003. The July 1, 2004 population estimate of
636,308 reflected the first annual increase in North Dakota’s
population since Census 2000. In 2005, the population grew to 636,677,
an increase of 369 people from the year before.
Three leading trends are seen
to influence the state’s future population and comprise the
underlying assumptions used to project future county populations
within North Dakota: 1) rural depopulation,
2) out-migration of young adults and young
families, and 3) an increasing
proportion of elderly.
1. Rural
Depopulation
Decades of movement of rural residents to the larger cities have
depopulated much of North Dakota. This trend of residential consolidation
in North Dakota is very similar to that occurring throughout the
Great Plains. In the last decade, population growth occurred largely
in the metropolitan and Native American reservation counties of
the state. In fact, only six of the state’s 53 counties
grew between 1990 and 2000 (20 percent in Cass, 15 percent in
Burleigh, 8 percent in Sioux, 7 percent in Rolette, 7 percent
in Morton, and 2 percent in Ward). The long-term trend of net
out-migration is expected to continue. Thus, the majority of counties
will continue to lose population. Currently, more than half of
the 53 counties in the state have a population base below 5,000
residents. By 2020, nearly half of the counties will have a population
base below 4,000 residents.
2. Out-Migration
of Young Adults and Young Families
In addition to the general trend of rural depopulation, another
significant pattern that will have a major consequence on the
future of the state’s population is the out-migration of
young adults and young families. The loss of residents in their
twenties and early thirties has increased markedly over the past
two decades. This trend has created an age imbalance that is very
evident in the population pyramids. The loss of young adults means
that there will be fewer parents of childbearing age and therefore
fewer children. As a result, the number of children will consistently
decline for the majority of counties over the next 20 years.
A historical analysis of birth records indicates a steady decline
in North Dakota births throughout the 1990s. In 1987, there were
10,303 births in North Dakota. This number dropped to a low of
7,635 in 1999. However, beginning in 2002, the number of births
began to increase, and in 2005, the North Dakota Department of
Health reported 8,179 births. At first glance, it may seem that
this increase in births is due to a reversal of the out-migration
of young adults/families trend. However, the increase in births
is most likely attributable to an age-cohort "bulge"
phenomenon referred to as the “echo of the echo of the baby
boomers” - that is, a larger number of women (a reflection
of being the children, or "echo," of the baby-boomers)
are currently in child-bearing years and are having children themselves
(i.e., the "echo of the echo"). The upward trend in
births will more than likely stabilize or decline once again when
this group of adults ages past typical child-bearing age.
3. Increasing
Proportion of Elderly
Another noteworthy trend is the increasing proportion of elderly
(age 65 and older). In 1980, 12.3 percent of the state’s
population base was age 65 or older; in 2000, the proportion had
increased to 14.7 percent. In addition, 27 of the state’s
53 counties had more than 20 percent of their population base
older than 64 in 2000. Nationally, the proportion of elderly is
only 12.4 percent. In addition, North Dakota has the highest proportion
in the nation of elderly 85 years and older. These high proportions
of elderly are due, in part, to a modest net in-migration of seniors
who are returning to the state to be close to family and friends.
Elderly desiring to return to informal care networks, already
a growing trend in population redistribution, will contribute
to dramatic increases as the baby-boom population ages. If current
trends continue, the number of elderly in the state will grow
by 58 percent over the next 20 years and represent nearly 23 percent
of the state’s population. In addition, the number of older
seniors (i.e., 85 years of age and older) will grow by nearly
two-thirds during that time frame.
These trends pose serious concerns for the state. For example,
how will counties remain viable in the face of continued rural depopulation?
Population losses, which reduce community size, force residents
to face rising costs of, increased travel times to, and decreased
availability of goods and services. Can counties and the state ensure
adequate healthcare in the face of rural hospital and clinic closings?
What will be the impact of further school consolidations on communities
across the state? In addition, how will communities address the
impact of out-migration of young adults? Young adults provide the
natural increase for a population base when they have children.
Declining numbers of young adults will have an impact on future
population growth. Moreover, young adults add vitality, new thoughts,
and new ideas to their communities. They are also the newest generation
of workers. The loss of this “human capital” will have
significant effects on the state. Finally, are counties and the
state positioned to offer services to a growing elderly population?
Do they have adequate and appropriate housing? How should they deal
with those elderly who are isolated? These and other concerns will
be important topics of debate among policy-makers.
Publication
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