Posted November 1, 2006 by Catie Hinckley and John Walker

Will Gerrymandered Districts Stem the Wave of Voter Unrest?

With less than a week to go before the 2006 midterm elections, it is difficult to get away from speculation about the great Democratic wave that many pundits predict will flip control the House and possibly the Senate. Yet compared to other big wave years — 1974 and 1994 — and despite greater voter unrest this year, the number of seats likely to switch parties will probably be significantly lower than in the past. This odd discrepancy requires some explanation.

The House of Representatives was designed to be what the Framers called “the People’s House,” and more responsive to the will of the voters. Ironically, percentage-wise, there are fewer competitive races in the people’s House this election than in the Senate. Both partisan and bipartisan gerrymandering by state legislatures around the country has reduced the number of competitive house seats to between seven and eight percent. The number of competitive Senate races is more than 15 percent.

The columns below ranks the competitiveness of all congressional districts based on the Cook Partisan Voting Index (PVI). The PVI is designed to provide a quick overall assessment of generic partisan strength. The PVI numbers are the average of the 2000 and 2004 presidential elections in the district as the partisan indicator. The PVI value is calculated by a comparison of the district average for the party nominee, compared to the 2004 national value for the party nominee. The calculations are based upon the two-party vote. The national values for 2004 are George W. Bush 51.2% and John Kerry 48.8%. The value indicates a district with a partisan base above the national value for that party’s 2004 presidential nominee. For example, a Republican district with an PVI of 15 is a district that voted 15 percentage points higher for Bush than the national value of 51.2%. An PVI of 00 indicates an evenly balanced district. The entries in bold indicate Representatives elected from the district’s minority party. Note that in Texas the results might be skewed because it is President Bush’s home state.

PVI	Political Party	District	Representative

43	Democratic	NY-15	Rangel-D
43	Democratic	NY-16	Serrano-D
41	Democratic	NY-10	Towns-D
40	Democratic	NY-11	Owens-D
39	Democratic	PA-2	Fattah-D
38	Democratic	NY-6	Meeks-D
38	Democratic	CA-9	Lee-D
36	Democratic	PA-1	Brady-D
36	Democratic	CA-8	Pelosi-D
35	Democratic	FL-17	Meek-D
35	Democratic	IL-1	Rush-D
35	Democratic	IL-2	Jackson-D
35	Democratic	IL-7	Davis-D
34	Democratic	NJ-10	Payne-D
34	Democratic	NY-12	Velasquez-D
33	Democratic	CA-33	Watson-D
33	Democratic	CA-35	Waters-D
33	Democratic	MA-8	Capuano-D
33	Democratic	MI-8	Conyers-D
33	Democratic	OH-11	Tubbs-Jones-D
32	Democratic	MI-13	Kilpatrick-D
30	Democratic	CA-31	Becerra-D
30	Democratic	MD-4	Wynn-D
30	Democratic	WA-7	McDermott-D
29	Democratic	FL-23	Hastings-D
28	Democratic	LA-2	Jefferson-D
28	Democratic	NY-7	Crawley-D
28	Democratic	NY-8	Nadler-D
27	Democratic	CA-37	Millender-McDonald-D
26	Democratic	MO-1	Clay-D
26	Democratic	NY-14	Maloney-D
26	Democratic	TX-30	Johnson-D
26	Republican	UT-3	Cannon-R
25	Republican	AL-6	Bachus-R
25	Democratic	CA-28	Berman-D
25	Democratic	MD-7	Cummings-D
25	Republican	TX-11	Conaway-R
25	Republican	TX-18	Thornberry-R
25	Republican	TX-19	Neugebauer-R
24	Republican	NE-3	Osborne-R
23	Democratic	CA-34	Roybal-Allard-D
23	Democratic	GA-4	McKinney-D
23	Democratic	GA-5	Lewis-D
23	Republican	GA-7	Linder-R
23	Republican	GA-10	Deal-R
23	Democratic	NJ-13	Menendez-D
23	Democratic	TX-18	Jackson-Lee-D
22	Democratic	CA-12	Lantos-D
22	Democratic	CA-13	Stark-D
22	Democratic	PA-14	Doyle-D
22	Republican	UT-1	Bishop-R
21	Democratic	CA-6	Woolsey-D
21	Democratic	FL-19	Wexler-D
21	Republican	GA-8	Westmoreland-R
21	Democratic	MN-5	Sabo-D
21	Democratic	NY-17	Engel-D
21	Democratic	TX-9	Green-D
20	Democratic	CA-30	Waxman-D
20	Democratic	CA-38	Napolitano-D
20	Democratic	IL-9	Schakowsky-D
20	Republican	IN-5	Burton-R
20	Republican	KS-1	Moran-R
20	Democratic	MD-8	Van Hollen-D
20	Republican	TX-8	Brady-R
20	Democratic	WI-4	Moore-D
20	Republican	WY	Cubin-R
19	Democratic	CA-7	Miller-D
19	Republican	FL-1	Miller-R
19	Republican	GA-5	Price-R
19	Republican	GA-9	Norwood-R
19	Republican	ID-1	Otter-R
19	Republican	ID-2	Simpson-R
19	Democratic	MA-4	Frank-D
19	Democratic	MA-7	Markey-D
18	Democratic	CA-14	Eshoo-D
18	Democratic	CO-1	DeGette-D
18	Democratic	FL-20	Wasserman-Schultz-D
18	Democratic	IL-5	Emanuel-D
18	Republican	LA-1	Jindal-R
18	Democratic	NY-5	Ackerman-D
18	Republican	OK-3	Lucas-R
18	Democratic	OR-3	Blumenauer-D
18	Democratic	TN-9	Ford-D
18	Republican	TX-17	Edwards-D
18	Democratic	VA-3	Scott-D
17	Democratic	AL-7	Davis-D
17	Democratic	CA-17	Farr-D
17	Democratic	CA-32	Solis-D
17	Republican	IN-4	Buyer-R
17	Republican	NC-6	Coble-R
17	Republican	TX-1	Gohmert-R
17	Republican	TX-30	Johnson-R
17	Republican	TX-4	Hall-R
17	Republican	UT-2	Matheson-D
16	Republican	AL-4	Aderholt-R
16	Democratic	CA-16	Lofgren-D
16	Republican	CA-22	Thomas-R
16	Republican	CO-5	Hefley-R
16	Democratic	FL-3	Brown-D
16	Republican	FL-4	Crenshaw-R
16	Republican	IN-3	Souder-R
16	Republican	MS-4	Taylor-D
16	Democratic	RI-1	Kennedy-D
16	Republican	TX-5	Hensarling-R
16	Republican	TX-7	Culberson-R
15	Republican	GA-1	Kingston-R
15	Democratic	MA-1	Olver-D
15	Democratic	MA-9	Lynch-D
15	Democratic	NY-28	Slaughter-D
15	Republican	NC-3	Jones-R
15	Republican	NC-5	Foxx-R
15	Republican	NC-10	McHenry-R
15	Republican	PA-9	Shuster-R
15	Republican	SC-4	Inglis-R
15	Republican	TX-6	Barton-R
15	Republican	TX-22	DeLay-R
15	Republican	TX-24	Marchant-R
15	Republican	TX-31	Carter-R
14	Democratic	AZ-4	Pastor-D
14	Democratic	CA-5	Matsui-D
14	Democratic	CA-15	Honda-D
14	Democratic	CT-1	Larson-D
14	Republican	MS-3	Pickering-R
14	Republican	MO-7	Blunt-R
14	Democratic	NJ-1	Andrews-D
14	Democratic	NY-9	Weiner-D
14	Republican	OH-4	Oxley-R
14	Democratic	OH-17	Ryan-D
14	Republican	SC-3	Barrett-R
14	Republican	TN-1	Jenkins-R
14	Republican	TX-12	Granger-R
14	Republican	TX-14	Paul-R
14	Republican	TX-25	Doggett-D
14	Democratic	VA-8	Moran-D
13	Republican	AL-2	Everett-R
13	Republican	CA-2	Herger-R
13	Republican	CA-21	Nunes-R
13	Democratic	CA-27	Sherman-D
13	Democratic	CA-39	Sanchez-D
13	Democratic	CA-43	Baca-D
13	Republican	KY-2	Lewis-R
13	Republican	MD-6	Barlett-R
13	Democratic	MA-2	Neal-D
13	Democratic	MA-3	McGovern-D
13	Democratic	MI-12	Levin-D
13	Democratic	MI-15	Dingell-D
13	Democratic	MN-4	McCollum-D
13	Democratic	NJ-9	Rothman-D
13	Republican	OH-2	Vacant
13	Republican	OK-1	Sullivan-R
13	Republican	OK-4	Cole-R
13	Democratic	RI-2	Langevin-D
13	Republican	TX-10	McCaul-R
13	Republican	TX-21	Smith-R
13	Republican	TX-23	Bonilla-R
13	Republican	WA-4	Hastings-R
13	Democratic	WI-2	Baldwin-D
12	Republican	AL-1	Bonner-R
12	Republican	AZ-6	Flake-R
12	Democratic	CA-29	Schiff-D
12	Democratic	CA-53	Davis-D
12	Democratic	CT-3	DeLauro-D
12	Democratic	GA-13	Scott-D
12	Republican	KS-4	Tiahrt-R
12	Republican	KY-4	Davis-R
12	Democratic	MI-5	Kildee-D
12	Democratic	MO-5	Cleaver-D
12	Republican	NE-1	Fortenberry-R
12	Democratic	NJ-6	Pallone-D
12	Democratic	NJ-8	Pascrell-D
12	Republican	NC-9	Myrick-R
12	Republican	ND	Pomeroy-D
12	Republican	OH-8	Boehner-R
12	Republican	OK-5	Istook-R
12	Republican	PA-19	Platts-R
12	Republican	TN-7	Blackburn-R
12	Republican	TX-2	Poe-R
12	Republican	TX-26	Burgess-R
12	Republican	WI-5	Sensenbrenner-R
11	Republican	AR-3	Boorman-R
11	Republican	CA-4	Doolittle-R
11	Democratic	CA-36	Harman-D
11	Democratic	FL-11	Davis-D
11	Republican	IN-6	Pence-R
11	Democratic	MA-5	Meehan-D
11	Democratic	MA-6	Tierney-D
11	Republican	MO-4	Skelton-D
11	Republican	MO-8	Emerson-R
11	Democratic	NC-11	Watt-D
11	Republican	OR-2	Walden-R
11	Republican	PA-16	Pitts-R
11	Democratic	SC-6	Clyburn-D
11	Republican	TN-2	Duncan-R
11	Republican	TX-32	Sessions-R
11	Republican	VA-6	Goodlatte-R
11	Republican	VA-7	Cantor-R
10	Republican	AK	Young-R
10	Democratic	AZ-7	Grijalva-D
10	Democratic	CA-1	Thompson-D
10	Republican	CA-19	Radanovich-R
10	Republican	CA-42	Miller-R
10	Republican	CA-49	Issa-R
10	Republican	CO-6	Tancredo-R
10	Republican	FL-14	Mack-R
10	Democratic	HI-2	Case-D
10	Democratic	IL-3	Lipinski-D
10	Republican	KY-1	Whitfield-R
10	Republican	LA-5	Alexander-R
10	Republican	MD-1	Gilchrest-R
10	Republican	MS-1	Wicker-R
10	Democratic	MS-2	Thompson-D
10	Democratic	NY-18	Lowey-D
10	Republican	OH-5	Gillmor-R
10	Republican	PA-5	Peterson-R
10	Republican	SC-1	Brown-R
10	Republican	SD	Herseth-D
9	Republican	AZ-2	Franks-R
9	Democratic	CA-10	Tauscher-D
9	Democratic	CA-23	Capps-D
9	Republican	CA-41	Lewis-R
9	Republican	CA-52	Hunter-R
9	Republican	CO-4	Musgrave-R
9	Democratic	IN-7	Carson-D
9	Republican	IN-8	Hostettler-R
9	Democratic	MD-5	Hoyer-D
9	Democratic	MA-10	Delahunt-D
9	Republican	MI-2	Hoekstra-R
9	Republican	MI-3	Ehlers-R
9	Republican	MO-2	Akin-R
9	Republican	MT	Rehberg-R
9	Republican	NE-2	Terry-R
9	Democratic	NV-1	Berkley-D
9	Democratic	NY-4	McCarthy-D
9	Democratic	NY-21	McNulty-D
9	Democratic	NC-1	Butterfield-D
9	Democratic	OH-9	Kaptur-D
9	Republican	SC-2	Wilson-R
9	Democratic	TX-16	Reyes-D
9	Republican	VA-1	Davis-R
8	Republican	CA-40	Royce-R
8	Republican	CA-48	Cox-R
8	Democratic	CO-2	Udall-D
8	Democratic	CT-2	Simmons-R
8	Republican	FL-6	Stearns-R
8	Republican	IL-19	Shimkus-R
8	Democratic	IN-1	Visclosky-D
8	Republican	IA-5	King-R
8	Republican	KY-5	Rogers-R
8	Democratic	MD-2	Ruppersberger-D
8	Democratic	MO-3	Carnahan-D
8	Republican	NV-2	Gibbons-R
8	Democratic	NJ-12	Holt-D
8	Democratic	NY-2	Israel-D
8	Democratic	OH-10	Kucinich-D
8	Republican	PA-10	Sherwood-R
8	Democratic	PA-13	Schwartz-D
8	Republican	TN-3	Wamp-R
8	Democratic	TX-20	Gonzalez-D
8	Democratic	TX-29	Green-D
8	Democratic	VT	Sanders-I
7	Republican	CA-3	Lungren-R
7	Republican	CA-25	McKeon-R
7	Democratic	CA-51	Filner-D
7	Democratic	HI-1	Abercrombie-D
7	Republican	IN-9	Sodrel-R
7	Democratic	IA-2	Leach-R
7	Republican	KS-2	Ryun-R
7	Republican	KY-6	Chandler-D
7	Republican	LA-4	McCrery-R
7	Republican	LA-6	Baker-R
7	Republican	LA-7	Boustany-R
7	Democratic	MD-3	Cardin-D
7	Republican	MO-9	Hulshof-R
7	Democratic	NY-27	Higgins-D
7	Republican	NC-11	Taylor-R
7	Republican	PA-17	Holden-D
7	Republican	VA-9	Boucher-D
7	Democratic	WA-1	Inslee-D
7	Republican	WA-5	McMorris-R
6	Republican	AL-5	Cramer-D
6	Republican	AZ-3	Shadegg-R
6	Republican	CA-44	Calvert-R
6	Republican	CA-46	Rohrabacher-R
6	Republican	CO-6	Salazar-D
6	Republican	FL-21	Diaz-Balart-R
6	Republican	IL-15	Johnson-R
6	Democratic	ME-1	Allen-D
6	Republican	MN-7	Peterson-D
6	Republican	NJ-11	Frelinghuysen-R
6	Republican	NM-2	Pearce-R
6	Democratic	NM-3	Udall-D
6	Democratic	NY-22	Hinchey-D
6	Democratic	NC-4	Price-D
6	Republican	OH-6	Hobson-R
6	Democratic	OH-13	Brown-D
6	Republican	OH-18	Ney-R
6	Democratic	OR-1	Wu-D
6	Republican	SC-5	Spratt-D
6	Democratic	TN-5	Cooper-D
6	Republican	VA-2	Drake-R
6	Republican	VA-5	Goode-R
6	Democratic	WA-6	Dicks-D
6	Democratic	WA-9	Smith-D
6	Republican	WV-1	Mollohan-D
5	Democratic	CA-20	Costa-D
5	Republican	CA-24	Gallegly-R
5	Democratic	CA-47	Sanchez-D
5	Republican	CA-50	Cunningham-R
5	Democratic	CT-4	Shays-R
5	Democratic	DE	Castle-R
5	Republican	FL-5	Brown-Waite-R
5	Republican	FL-12	Putnam-R
5	Democratic	GA-12	Barrow-D
5	Republican	IL-8	Bean-D
5	Democratic	IL-12	Costello-D
5	Republican	IL-13	Biggert-R
5	Republican	IL-14	Hastert-R
5	Democratic	IL-17	Evans-D
5	Republican	IL-18	LaHood-R
5	Democratic	IA-1	Nussle-R
5	Republican	LA-3	Melancon-D
5	Republican	MN-6	Kennedy-R
5	Republican	MO-6	Graves-R
5	Republican	NY-29	Kuhl-R
5	Republican	OK-2	Boren-D
5	Democratic	PA-11	Kanjorski-D
5	Democratic	PA-12	Murtha-D
5	Republican	VA-4	Forbes-R
5	Republican	V-10	Wolf-R
5	Republican	WV-2	Capito-R
5	Republican	WI-6	Petri-R
4	Republican	AZ-5	Hayworth-R
4	Republican	CA-26	Dreier-R
4	Democratic	CT-5	Johnson-R
4	Republican	FL-7	Mica-R
4	Republican	FL-9	Bilirakis-R
4	Republican	FL-13	Harris-R
4	Republican	FL-15	Weldon-R
4	Republican	FL-18	Ros-Lehtinen-R
4	Democratic	FL-22	Shaw-R
4	Republican	FL-25	Diaz-Balart-R
4	Republican	IL-10	Kirk-R
4	Republican	IL-16	Mazullo-R
4	Republican	IN-2	Chocola-R
4	Republican	KS-4	Moore-D
4	Democratic	ME-2	Michaud-D
4	Republican	MI-4	Camp-R
4	Republican	MI-10	Miller-R
4	Democratic	MN-8	Oberstar-D
4	Democratic	NJ-2	LoBiondo-R
4	Republican	NJ-5	Garrett-R
4	Republican	OH-16	Regula-R
4	Democratic	PA-7	Weldon-R
4	Republican	TN-6	Gordon-D
4	Republican	WI-8	Green-R
3	Republican	CA-11	Pombo-R
3	Democratic	CA-18	Cardoza-D
3	Republican	CA-45	Bono-R
3	Republican	FL-8	Keller-R
3	Republican	FL-24	Feeney-R
3	Republican	GA-3	Marshall-D
3	Republican	GA-11	Gingrey-R
3	Republican	IL-6	Hyde-R
3	Republican	MN-2	Kline-R
3	Democratic	NH-2	Bass-R
3	Democratic	NJ-3	Saxton-R
3	Democratic	NY-1	Bishop-D
3	Republican	NY-20	Sweeney-R
3	Democratic	NY-25	Walsh-R
3	Republican	NY-26	Reynolds-R
3	Republican	NC-2	Ethridge-D
3	Republican	NC-7	McIntyre-D
3	Republican	NC-8	Hayes-R
3	Republican	OH-3	Turner-R
3	Republican	PA-4	Hart-R
3	Democratic	PA-8	Fitzpatrick-R
3	Republican	TN-4	Davis-D
3	Democratic	WA-2	Larsen-D
3	Democratic	WI-3	Kind-D
2	Republican	AZ-1	Renzi-R
2	Democratic	CO-7	Beauprez-R
2	Republican	FL-2	Boyd-D
2	Republican	FL-16	Foley-R
2	Democratic	KY-3	Northup-R
2	Republican	MI-1	Stupak-D
2	Republican	MI-6	Upton-R
2	Republican	MI-7	Schwarz-R
2	Republican	MI-8	Rogers-R
2	Democratic	NM-1	Wilson-R
2	Democratic	NY-3	King-R
2	Democratic	NC-13	Miller-D
2	Republican	OH-14	LaTourette-R
2	Republican	PA-3	English-R
2	Democratic	PA-6	Gerlach-R
2	Democratic	PA-15	Dent-R
2	Republican	PA-18	Murphy-R
2	Democratic	WA-8	Reichert-R
2	Republican	WI-1	Ryan-R
2	Democratic	WI-7	Obey-D
1	Republican	AZ-8	Kolbe-R
1	Democratic	AR-1	Berry-D
1	Democratic	FL-10	Young-R
1	Republican	GA-2	Bishop-D
1	Republican	IL-11	Weller-R
1	Democratic	IA-3	Boswell-D
1	Republican	MI-11	McCotter-R
1	Republican	MN-1	Gutknecht-R
1	Republican	MN-3	Ramstad-R
1	Democratic	NV-3	Porter-R
1	Republican	NJ-4	Smith-R
1	Republican	NJ-7	Ferguson-R
1	Democratic	NY-13	Fossella-R
1	Republican	NY-19	Kelly-R
1	Republican	NY-24	Boehlert-R
1	Republican	OH-1	Chabot-R
1	Republican	OH-12	Tiben-R
1	Republican	OH-15	Pryce-R
1	Democratic	OR-5	Hooley-D
1	Republican	TX-15	Hinojosa-D
1	Democratic	TX-27	Ortiz-D
1	Democratic	TX-28	Cuellar-D
1	Republican	VA-11	Davis-R
0	Republican	AR-2	Snyder-D
0	Democratic	AR-4	Ross-D
0	Democratic	IA-4	Latham-D
0	Republican	MI-9	Knollenberg-R
0	Republican	NH-1	Bradley-R
0	Republican	NY-23	McHugh-R
0	Democratic	OH-6	Strickland-D
0	Democratic	OR-4	DeFazio-D
0	Democratic	TN-8	Tanner-D
0	Democratic	WA-3	Baird-D
0	Democratic	WV-3	Rahall-D