Fundação Getulio Vargas’ Brazilian Institute of Economics (FGV IBRE) will hold the First Brazilian Prospects Seminar of 2020 shortly after the national statistics agency, IBGE, released its 2019 GDP numbers, indicating that the economy grew 1.1% last year, and amid the coronavirus outbreak. These subjects and the political outlook will be discussed at the meeting, to be held on March 9 at the FGV Cultural Center (Praia de Botafogo, 186, Rio de Janeiro), between 4 pm and 6 pm.

As economic activity gradually recovers, new challenges have appeared on the international stage. In addition to expectations that global growth will remain moderate, the emergence of a possible epidemic originating in China has created more uncertainty about economic performance, especially in China, which may experience negative impacts in the first quarter due to the restrictions imposed by the government to help stop the virus spreading across the country and worldwide.

“FGV IBRE’s growth forecasts have continued to be more conservative than those of the market, as we foresaw very challenging external circumstances. Recent events have confirmed these prospects of moderate activity. If this shock remains large and goes on for much longer, we will have to revise our GDP projections downward. Everything will depend on the impacts this will have on growth in China and the rest of the world. It’s a very difficult start to the year, and we will only know the real impacts on the Brazilian economy as time goes by,” said Silvia Matos, the coordinator of IBRE’s Macro Bulletin.

In these new circumstances, combined with internal difficulties in increasing investment, the likelihood of stronger economic growth in Brazil is becoming more remote. As a result, it is increasingly urgent for economic reforms to advance more quickly.

The seminar’s debaters will include the following FGV IBRE academics: Silvia Matos, Armando Castelar, Samuel Pessôa and José Júlio Senna. Maria Hermínia Tavares, a researcher at the Brazilian Center for Analysis and Planning (Cebrap) and a retired University of Sao Paulo professor, will give a talk about the political situation.

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