Air industry chief predicts 'chaos' for holiday flights in event of no-deal Brexit

A no-deal Brexit will be a nightmare for passengers, airlines and airports, the head of the organisation that represents the world’s carriers has warned.

Alexandre de Juniac, director general of the International Air Transport Association (IATA), which speaks for 290 airlines, said the air travel industry had little more certainty of what will happen after the UK leaves the EU now than it did in June 2016.

“We predict chaos if nothing is done,” the former CEO of Air France said. “It will be difficult for airlines to know if they can take off and land in the UK.

“It will be difficult to know if pilot licences are mutually recognised. It will be a nightmare for airports and passengers and airlines.”

Mr de Juniac cited Spain, one of the largest markets for British travellers, as particular vulnerable to disruption owing to the vast number of flights a week between the two countries.

Asked whether airlines should tell customers about the risk of booking flights for travel after next March, when the UK is scheduled to leave the EU, he told Telegraph Travel that it is not IATA’s responsibility to advise airlines on how to sell tickets, “but that the responsibility to ensure that the normal needs of air transport connectivity can be met rests squarely on the shoulders of the EU and UK”.

“We are ringing the warning bell so that governments are fully aware of what is at stake and of the urgent need for progress,” he added.

IATA said that even in the event of a “best-case scenario” deal for March next year, a “high degree of uncertainty and risk to air services remains”.

Mr de Juniac’s comments come more than a month after the UK Government acknowledged that thousands of passengers could see their flights to Europe grounded by a no-deal Brexit.

In the event of no deal being reached, the aviation industry is prepared to fall back on a “bare bones” agreement. But IATA says this would only guarantee a “basic level of air connectivity” and would lead to “significant” disruption in regards to operations between the EU and the UK.

IATA said “inevitable […] operational differences” at the UK-EU border would lead to “a poor passenger experience” at borders that could in tern dampen demand for air travel, as well as increase the number of missed flight connections for passengers.

The airline organisation is also concerned about the impact a no-deal Brexit could have on aviation security and safety, as the UK would cease being a member of the European Aviation Safety Agency (EASA).

The organisation, in a report published into the impact of Brexit on air services, said there should be a mutual recognition of pilot licences and adoption of safety and manufacturing standards. Otherwise, aircraft, engines or any other parts made in the UK would lose their certification in the EU.

What agreements are needed to permit airlines to fly?

Countries around the world have different agreements with one another that allow airlines to fly international services. As an EU country, the UK and its airlines, such as British Airways, Jet2 and EasyJet, are covered by the internal market for air services, which means that any airline licensed by an EU country, and therefore adhering to common regulations, is entitled to operate any route within the EU without any advance permission.

The agreement also extends to Iceland, Liechtenstein and Norway through their membership of the European Economic Area (EEA), creating the the European Common Aviation Area, the ECAA.

More countries, including Turkey, Armenia and Ukraine, are part of the European Civil Aviation Conference, which seeks “to harmonise civil aviation policies”, but does not give permissions for flying. As you can see from the above map, there are a number of different European aviation agreements.

Broadly speaking, the UK’s position in all of this is up for debate and, should that debate be wrapped up in the UK failing to secure a deal with the EU, British airlines could find themselves grounded by the loss of the automatic right to fly to the EU.

Should I be worried about booking a flight for next year?

Despite an understanding between the UK, EU and all airlines involved, that grounded flights the day after Brexit would be a disaster, Nick Trend, Telegraph Travel’s consumer editor, said that passengers should be cautious about booking flights departing or returning after March until we have more certain information.

“If you do book, bear in mind that you will have more security if you make arrangements through a tour operator - it will have a duty of care to look after you, and to refund all money if you are prevented from travelling by a hard Brexit,” he added.

“Independent travellers should get a refund of their airfare in the event of a cancellation, but are not entitled to refunds of any money paid in advance for hotels or villa abroad, for example.

“I personally will be avoiding any travel for at least a couple of weeks after March 29 because of the general risk of delays and disruption at borders.”