It’s official, according to NOAA: This El Nino episode is over.
In its monthly report, released Thursday, a group of scientists including NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center and the National Weather Service said that El Nino conditions have ended across the equatorial Pacific and neutral conditions have returned.
The report said ENSO neutral conditions (which means no El Nino or its opposite, La Nina) have a 50 percent chance of lasting through the winter.
El Nino is the climate phenomenon characterized by warmer than average sea temperatures in the equatorial Pacific. Those warmer waters can influence weather patterns worldwide.
Now that El Nino is over, what does that mean for Alabama’s weather?
“For the next few months there won’t be much of effect for the state as a whole,” Alabama State Climatologist Dr. John Christy said Thursday.
But the timing of El Nino’s departure is not ideal — coming at the beginning of the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season.
“The cessation of El Nino usually implies there will be a few more tropical storms/hurricanes than during years with El Ninos,” Christy said.
Today NOAA raised the likelihood of an above-average Atlantic hurricane season in a forecast update. The Atlantic hurricane season runs until Nov. 30.:
“Though the hurricane season is starting off slow, as in 2004, the folks in Gulf Shores will remember what happened in mid-September that year. Ivan,” Christy said.
Hurricane Ivan was a Category 3 storm that slammed into the Alabama coastline just west of Gulf Shores with 120 mph winds.
According to the National Weather Service in Mobile Hurricane Ivan did more damage to Baldwin County than Hurricanes Frederic (1979) and Opal (1995).
"So, don’t let your guard down as we head into a season with a bit higher probably than usual of some action in the Gulf,” Christy said.
According to NOAA El Nino and La Nina episodes typically last nine to 12 months, but some could last for years. El Nino and La Nina events occur on average every two to seven years, with El Nino appearing more frequently than La Nina.
This El Nino episode began in February and was on the weaker side.
The last El Nino was a strong one that began in 2015 and lasted into 2016.