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Cable reference id: #05VATICAN466

“All of them, those in power, and those who want the power, would pamper us, if we agreed to overlook their crookedness by wilfully restricting our activities.” — “Refus Global“, Paul-Émile Borduas

Hide header UNCLAS VATICAN 000466 SIPDIS DEPT. FOR EUR/WE (LEVIN); EUR/PPD; INR E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PREL [External Political Relations], PGOV [Internal Governmental Affairs], PINR [Intelligence], VT [Vatican City] SUBJECT: TOWARD THE CONCLAVE PART III: THE CANDIDATES REF: A. A) VATICAN 0367, B. B) VATICAN 0450, C. C) 03 VATICAN 5309 ¶1. (U) When the 115 Cardinal electors enter the Sistine Chapel April 18 to elect a successor to Pope John Paul II, there will be no clear favorite. Despite intensive media speculation and a series of media bubbles for various candidates, heading into the conclave no candidate appears to have an inside track to the 77 votes (two-thirds of the electors) required for election. As we have reported in the first two parts of this series (refs a and b), the electors will likely be looking for a theologically conservative but socially engaged candidate, who can address the distinctive regional challenges facing the church, capture the public imagination, and run a tight ship in Rome while broadening the sense of collegiality among bishops in the field. This final pre-conclave cable takes a look at the leading papal candidates or "papabile," from whom the next Pope is likely to be chosen. Still, the many factors at play in the election, the secretiveness of the process, and the unpredictable group SIPDIS dynamics makes handicapping this election almost impossible, as evidenced by the fact that Pope John Paul was not among the papabili at the time of his election in 1978. End Summary. ---------------------------------- The Race is Not to the Swift . . . ---------------------------------- ¶2. (U) On the eve of the papal election, no single candidate has emerged as a clear frontrunner. Despite a week of media speculation suggesting that German Cardinal and close John Paul II collaborator Joseph Ratzinger was moving close to a majority of votes, it appears that he lacks enough support to achieve the required two-thirds, given strong opposition from factions that see Ratzinger as too rigid and jealous of Rome's prerogatives. Some of these forces appear to be uniting around retired Archbishop of Milan, Cardinal Carlo Maria Martini, as a standard-bearer for the initial votes that will test the strength of the differing groups, though he is not expected to be a viable candidate. Based on these initial showings, the cardinals in subsequent votes are expected to shift to other candidates who reflect the Ratzinger or Martini views, but who offer better hope of garnering support from other groups. Italian Cardinals Ruini or Scola, and Argentinian Cardinal Bergolio would be suitable to the Ratzinger camp, while Milan's Archbishop Cardinal Tettamanzi or Brazilian Cardinal Hummes could pull the support of the anti-Ratzinger groups. ¶3. (U) Despite the focus on these front-runners, the list of viable candidates remains broad, and given the shape of the race at this point, any one of them - or someone not included here -- could emerge as Karol Wojtyla did in 1978. Many Italians, who form the largest national bloc, are hoping to regain the papacy. Many Latin Americans, who represent the largest group of Catholics in the world, believe that one of their number should ascend. Other Europeans are certainly in the mix, particularly those who could reach out to Catholics in developing regions. And Africans and Asians, who represent Catholicism's most rapid areas of growth, feel that a pope from their midst would send a powerful signal of the Church's universality. These regional factors, of course, are one series of many that will be in play, and there will be many alliances rooted in theology or approach to Church governance that will transcend regional allegiances. For the ease of identifying candidates, however, Post provides below biographical sketches of the leading candidates organized by region, in alphabetical order within the region. ------------ The Italians ------------ ¶4. Having held the papacy in an unbroken string for 455 years prior to Karol Wojtyla's election, many observers have suggested that the Italian electors will be eager to return the papacy to an Italian. The Pope is the bishop of Rome, they point out, and therefore should speak Italian and understand Italian culture. Those who want to see an Italian ascend to the papacy hope the Italian Cardinals can unite around one candidate and use their core strength to coalesce additional support. At this time, however, it does not appear that the Italians are united, and some have even publicly indicated that the Church has moved beyond Italy, and Italians should no longer regard the papacy as an Italian prerogative. Despite the divisions and differing perspectives, there are a number of strong Italian candidates, particularly Cardinal Tettamanzi of Milan and Cardinal Ruini, the Pope's Vicar of Rome, around whom a consensus could eventually emerge. The Italian candidates include: -- BERTONE, Tarcisio: Born December 2, 1934. Joined the Salesian order in 1950 and was ordained a priest on July 1, 1960. He became professor of moral theology at his order's university in Rome, and later taught canon law. Recognizing his competence in church law issues, the Vatican asked him to work on the final phase of the new Code of Canon law, released in 1983. Since the early 1980s, he has served as an advisor to various Vatican departments, including the all-important Congregation for the Doctrine of the Faith. Bertone was appointed Rector of Rome's Pontifical Salesian University in 1989. Three years later, Pope John Paul II appointed him Archbishop of Vercelli (northern Italy), and in 1995 named him Secretary (number two) at the Congregation for the Doctrine of SIPDIS the Faith, where he worked for Cardinal Ratzinger. During his tenure at the Congregation, Bertone helped develop key documents on the nature of the papacy and the place of the Catholic Church in relation to other Christian churches and the world religions -- projects particularly dear to Pope John Paul II. After his appointment as archbishop of Genoa in 2002 and his elevation to cardinal the following year, Bertone continued his advisory role on theological and legal issues. Bertone recently made headlines for comments criticizing what he regarded as misleading and anti-Catholic aspects of Dan Brown's bestseller, The DaVinci Code. His ideological proximity to Pope John Paul II and closeness to Cardinal Ratzinger increases his odds if the cardinals are looking for continuity with John Paul II in an Italian candidate. -- RUINI, Camillo: Pope John Paul II's Vicar (delegate) for the Diocese of Rome, President of the powerful Italian Bishops Conference (CEI), and board member of the Vatican office for Bishops. Cardinal Ruini was born February 19, 1931 in Sassuolo, Italy. Ordained a priest in 1954, he completed a Doctorate in Theology from the Pontifical Gregorian University. He was ordained a bishop in 1983 and appointed Auxiliary Bishop of Reggio Emilia. In 1986 Ruini was appointed Secretary of the Italian Bishops Conference, becoming a member of the General Secretariat (governing body) in 1990. Pope John Paul II SIPDIS promoted him to Archbishop, Vicar General of the Diocese of Rome and President of the Italian Bishops Conference in 1991, and he was created a cardinal the same year. John Paul II re-appointed Ruini to the presidency of the Bishops Conference for a further five-year term ending in 2006. A conservative, Ruini has a high profile in Italy where he is close to the Italian political establishment, and has recently been involved in an intense and complicated political battle over Italian laws on artificial insemination. He has a well-developed understanding of international affairs, and has made clear to U.S. officials his strong support for a close transatlantic partnership with the U.S., where he has spent time to enhance his English. Ruini could emerge as a candidate of the pro-Ratzinger group, who could attract a wider following than the non-charismatic German. -- SCOLA, Angelo: Patriarch of Venice, born November 7, 1941 in Malgrate, Italy. After obtaining a degree in philosophy from the Catholic University of the Sacred Heart in Milan, he earned a doctoral degree in theology from the University of Fribourg in Switzerland. Academically brilliant, Scola was ordained a priest on July 18, 1970. His priestly career included university professorships in Switzerland and Italy, culminating with his appointment in 1995 as rector of the Pontifical Lateran University in Rome. He, too, has served as an advisor to Cardinal Joseph Ratzinger at the Vatican office for doctrinal orthodoxy. Scola is cosmopolitan, affable, intelligent, and has a warm personality. He speaks German, French and English, as well as his native Italian. Scola is a staunch defender of Catholic doctrine, but without the handicap of being a demagogue -- preferring to engage others by reason and dialogue. Some Vatican watchers have described Scola as intellectually arrogant, citing his practice of turning simple pastoral events like parish visits into magisterial lectures on sophisticated theological and philosophical themes. With the support of conservative ecclesial movements such as Opus Dei and Communion and Liberation, Scola has opened a theological school in Venice. He has also begun publication of a magazine promoting Christian-Muslim dialogue. Fiercely loyal to Pope John Paul II, Scola was a favorite of the late Pontiff and has reportedly been was groomed during that period in preparation for "greater things." -- TETTAMANZI, Dionigi: Cardinal Archbishop of Milan, Italy, board member of four important Vatican offices, formally a senior official of the Italian Bishops Conference. Tettamanzi is an astute theologian specializing in ethics and family issues. Born March 14, 1934 in Renate, near Milan. Ordained a priest on June 28, 1957, he completed his doctorate in theology at the Pontifical Gregorian University, and taught theology for 25 years. Former Secretary General of the Italian Bishops Conference, Pope John Paul II nominated him Metropolitan Archbishop of Genoa in 1995 and created him a Cardinal on February 21, 1998. In 2002 he was appointed to the prestigious See of Milan -- an appointment seen by many as a reward for his loyalty to John Paul II. The Cardinal's notable publications deal with moral issues associated with the elderly, women, the family, bio-ethics and virginity. He is thought to be close to Opus Dei. Tettamanzi is a moderate who may be able gain the support of and mediate between conservatives and liberals. An intellectual with a pastoral flair, he enjoys a reputation for being discerning and clear-sighted. He speaks limited English. After a high-visibility start in Milan that earned him the reproach of Vatican insiders who believed he was promoting his papal credentials too vigorously, Tettamanzi has more recently kept a lower profile. In Milan, Tettamanzi has impressed people with his pastoral sensitivity, openness to the city's young people, and ability to grapple with complicated moral and social issues, placing them within a comprehensible modern context. While probably Italy's best candidate, his lack of language skills may work against him at the conclave. --------------- Other Europeans --------------- ¶5. (U) Despite the continued decline of the observant Catholic population in Europe and increasing secularization in most traditionally Catholic countries, Europe remains the traditional core of the Catholic Church and home to half of the Cardinal electors. Having broken the Italian stranglehold on the Papacy with a Polish Pope, many believe the door is now open to other European non-Italian candidates. Advocates of a European pope stress the importance of rebuilding the church in Europe, and maintain that a non-European pope would make it seem the church had written off Europe. Cardinal Ratzinger is the leading non-Italian European, though Portuguese Archbishop of Lisbon Policarpo has recently surfaced as a European who could reach out to Latin America. -- da CRUZ POLICARPO, JOSE: Patriarch of Lisbon, Portugal. Born February 26, 1936, in Alvorninha, Portugal, he was ordained in August 1961 and holds a doctorate in theology from Rome's Gregorian University. After heading seminaries in Penafirme and Olivais, he became dean of the Theological Faculty of the Portuguese Catholic University. He later served two terms as rector of the same university (1988-96). In May 1978 he was appointed auxiliary bishop of Lisbon, receiving episcopal ordination that June 29. In March 1997 he was appointed coadjutor archbishop of Lisbon and became patriarch in March 1998. He is also grand chancellor of the Portuguese Catholic University and president of the Portuguese bishops' conference. Proclaimed a cardinal in February 2001, he is seen as a moderate European who could appeal to Latin American electors. -- DANNEELS, Godfried: Cardinal Archbishop of Mechlin-Brussels in Belgium, advisor to the Vatican's Foreign Office, and board member of several Vatican offices. Danneels was born in Kanegem, Belgium June 4, 1933. Ordained a priest in 1957, he studied at the Catholic University of Leuven, Belgium and at the Pontifical Gregorian University in Rome. Danneels holds a doctorate of Theology, later taught theology in Leuven, and has authored several books. Danneels was ordained Bishop of Antwerp in 1977 and promoted to the Archdiocese of Mechlin-Brussels two years later. He is President of the Belgian Bishops Conference as well as Bishop for the country's military. Created a cardinal in 1983, Danneels has traveled widely and has taken a prominent and highly visible place on the executive of a number of Synod of Bishops meetings held in Rome over the years. He speaks several languages and is computer literate. Danneels is an astute theologian, often presenting sound Catholic doctrine with a veneer of linguistic liberalism. He represents the best of an eclectic European Catholicism, and would make a good compromise candidate for the papacy. His extensive travels have made him well known among the cardinal electors. An eminently practical leader and administrator, he has been forthright yet discreet in speaking about the late Pope's health and related issues. -- RATZINGER, Joseph: Dean of the College of Cardinals and Prefect of the Congregation for the Doctrine of the Faith. Born 16 April 1927 in Marktl am Inn, Germany, he was called into the auxiliary anti-aircraft service in the last months of World War II. From 1946 to 1951, the year in which he was ordained a priest and began to teach, he studied philosophy and theology at the University of Munich and at the higher school in Freising. In 1953 he obtained a doctorate in theology, and subsequently taught dogma and fundamental theology in Freising, Bonn, Munster, Tubingen, and Regensburg, where he became Vice President of the university. In 1962, at the age of 35, he became a consultant at the second Vatican Council in Rome. In March 1977, Paul VI appointed him Archbishop of Munich and Freising, and on 28 May 1977 he was ordained a bishop, the first diocesan priest in 80 years to take over the pastoral ministry of this large Bavarian diocese. Pope Paul VI created Ratzinger a cardinal in the consistory of 27 June 1977. On 25 November 1981, he was nominated by John Paul II as Prefect of the Congregation for the Doctrine of the Faith, President of the Biblical Commission, and of the Pontifical International Theological Commission. Elected November 30, 2002 as Dean of the College of Cardinals, Ratzinger serves on many curial bodies: the Secretariat of State (foreign affairs section), Eastern-rite Churches, Worship and Sacraments, Bishops, Evangelization of Peoples, Catholic Education, Christian Unity, Culture, and the Commission for Latin America. Ratzinger generated headlines in 2004 by asserting that Turkey should not be considered a European country and should not be allowed in the EU -- a view derived from his conception of Europe as rooted in Christianity. He led the unsuccessful Vatican drive to secure a mention of Europe's Christian roots in the EU constitution. He earned praise for his homily at John Paul II's funeral mass, and will certainly garner the most votes in the early ballots, but is unlikely to secure wide enough support to be elected. -- SCHONBORN, Christoph: Cardinal Archbishop of Vienna, Austria, and member of the Vatican's doctrinal watchdog office. Born January 22, 1945 in Skalsko in the former Czechoslovakia, his family moved to Austria later that year. Schonborn joined the Dominican Order in 1963, and studied theology at prestigious Catholic and state-run universities in Germany and France, including Paris' Institute Catholique and the "Ecole Practique des Hautes Etudes" at the Sorbonne. He holds a Doctorate in Theology. Ordained a priest in 1970, Schonborn continued his studies, later joining the faculty at the University of Freibourg in Switzerland. He was a member of the Vatican's select International Theological Commission from 1980-1991. From 1987 to 1992 he was Secretary of the editorial commission for the Vatican's definitive doctrinal compendium: The Catechism of the Catholic Church. Schonborn was appointed Auxiliary Bishop of Vienna in 1991, eventually assuming responsibility for the jurisdiction in 1995. He was created a cardinal in 1998 and has been President of the Austrian Bishops Conference since then. Schonborn is the intellectual's choice for pope but unfortunately he has been tainted by the sexual abuse scandals in his national church. The fact he is the pastor of a large diocese is one plus for him. However, Austria's Catholics are divided between conservative traditionalists and radical liberals, and Schonborn's inability to control the open rebellion of many Austrian Catholics against the present papacy and Catholic conservatism in general has tarnished his image for many cardinal electors. His relative youth will also work against him as few electors are looking for another 25-year reign. ------------------------- Latin American Candidates ------------------------- ¶6. (U) Latin America is home to 42 percent of the world's Catholics, and is the second home of the Church after Europe. With the continued decline in the vitality of the Church in Europe, many Latin Americans believe the time has come for a Pope from the developed world, where the church is growing and active, but nevertheless facing competition from evangelical groups and working to address daunting social and economic challenges. Latin American Cardinals have told us they feel this conclave could produce the first Latin American Pope, though they have been cautious about making this case too strongly for fear of alienating non-Latin colleagues. Clearly if the decision for a Pope were based solely on regional considerations, a Latin American pope would be a logical choice for the electors for the powerful message it would send to this bastion of Catholicism and to the broader church in the developing world. The conclave will have a number of viable Latin American candidates to consider when they sit down April 18, but these candidates will have to overcome the region's under-representation in the College of Cardinals, where they account for less than 20 percent of the votes. -- BERGOGLIO, Jorge Mario: Born December 17, 1936 in Buenos Aires, and ordained December 13, 1969 during his theological studies at the Theological Faculty of San Miguel. Bergoglio served as Jesuit Provincial (elected leader of the order) for Argentina (1973-79) and rector of the Philosophical and Theological Faculty of San Miguel (1980-86). After completing his doctoral dissertation in Germany, Bergoglio served as a confessor and spiritual director in Cordoba. In 1992, the Pope appointed him Assistant Bishop of Buenos Aires; then in 1997, he was appointed Coadjutor Archbishop (deputy archbishop with right of succession) of Buenos Aires; ultimately becoming Archbishop on February 28, 1998. Bergoglio is the vice-President of the Argentine Bishops Conference and serves on the Vatican's committee for the worldwide synod of bishops (a grouping of all bishops conferences). He speaks Spanish, Italian and German. Bergoglio exemplifies the virtues of the wise pastor that many electors value. Observers have praised his humility: he has been reluctant to accept honors or hold high office and commutes to work on a bus. What could count against him is his membership in the Jesuit order. Some senior prelates, especially conservatives, are suspicious of a liberal streak in the order, perhaps most pronounced in the U.S., but also present elsewhere. Bergoglio is said to prefer life in the local Church as opposed to a bureaucratic existence in Rome's ecclesiastical structures, but at the same time he has been willing to serve on the Vatican's various supervisory committees. This could indicate an ability to bridge the curia/local church divide that splits the College of Cardinal Electors, making him a good compromise candidate. -- CASTRILLON HOYOS, Dario: Prefect of the Congregation for Clergy, and board member of several Vatican offices. Born July 4, 1929 in Medellin, Colombia, he was ordained a priest in 1952. He holds a doctorate in Canon Law from Rome's Pontifical Gregorian University and post-graduate diplomas in religious sociology, political economics and ethical economics. Castrillon Hoyos worked in a variety of pastoral fields and was Secretary General of the Colombian Bishops Conference from 1954 SIPDIS until 1971 when we was appointed coadjutor bishop of Pereira, Colombia, assuming leadership of the diocese five years later. He played a prominent role in the Latin American Episcopal Council, first as General Secretary (1983-1987) and later as President (1987-1991). After a two-year appointment at the helm of the Archdiocese of Bucaramanga, Colombia, the Pope called him to Rome to head the Congregation for Clergy, which overseas the Vatican's outreach to and guidelines for clergy worldwide. He was created a cardinal in 1998 and has served as a Papal Legate on various occasions, most notably in 1998 at the signing of the Treaty to end the border dispute between Peru and Ecuador. As a curia official and a son of Latin America he is another of those "bridging" cardinals who may appeal to electors searching for a candidate who reflects the Catholic Church of the twenty-first century. At 74 years old, he is also just the right age. Castrillon Hoyos is a realist and a good friend of the United States, who has expressed strong support for U.S. efforts to combat terrorism. Combining firm and traditional theology with modern communication methods, he has used his position at the Congregation for Clergy to involve tens of thousands of priest worldwide in Internet videoconferences on themes ranging from bioethics to Church/State relations. Castrillon Hoyos may be the perfect candidate for those hoping for a Hispanic pope who knows his way around the Roman Curia. -- HUMMES, Claudio: Cardinal Archbishop of Sao Paolo, Brazil. A Franciscan monk and very much a pastor, Hummes was born the son of German immigrants in Montenegro, Brazil in 1934. He has been a bishop since 1975, and was created a cardinal in 2001. Hummes is a board member of several Vatican departments, including the Commission for Latin America. As a young bishop, Hummes had a reputation as a staunch defender of the underdog, and he assumed mythical status in his battles with the generals of the Brazilian dictatorship. He has actively defended the Movimento sem Terra (landless peasants), arguing that people should be encouraged to organize themselves to defend their rights. In later years, he adopted a more traditional theological stance and distanced himself from political action, though he still reminds government leaders that the Church defends private property, but with "social responsibility." Hummes may have the right mix of doctrinal caution and social engagement electors are seeking. Hummes was invited to preach the Lenten Spiritual Exercises to Pope John Paul and senior Curia officials in February 2002 -- a traditional sign of Papal favor. Gentle and soft-spoken, the Franciscan Archbishop of Sao Paolo can also be stubbornly opinionated. His election would be a powerful affirmative signal to Catholics in the developing world that they have a central place in the Church. -- RIVERA CARRERA, Norberto: Cardinal Archbishop of Mexico City. Born June 6, 1942 in Tepehuanes. After ordination as a priest in 1966, he studied at Rome's Gregorian University and later taught at the Pontifical Mexican University in Mexico City. The sixty-two year-old Rivera Carrera is the quintessential Latin American churchman who advocates social justice within a conservative theological framework. He has criticized globalization and political corruption; but also closed a seminary in his first diocese as a bishop, charging it with teaching Marxist theology. The cardinal has acted as the Vatican's agent for inspections of other seminaries in Mexico. Rivera Carrera is reputed to be close to the Legionaries of Christ, a powerful conservative movement that sprang up after the Second Vatican Council. He is also active in promoting traditional family rights and values, a central theme in the John Paul II papacy. The cardinal is a board member of several Vatican offices, including the Council of the Second Section of the Secretariat of State (Foreign Ministry). -- RODRIGUEZ MARADIAGA, Oscar: Cardinal Archbishop of Tegucigalpa, Honduras. Born December 29 1942 in Tegucigalpa, he joined the Salesian Order in 1961 and obtained three doctoral degrees: philosophy (in El Salvador), theology, and moral theology (at papal universities in Rome). A versatile priest, he holds a Diploma in Clinical Psychology and Psychotherapy from the University of Innsbruck, Austria. He studied piano, harmony and musical composition in El Salvador, Guatemala and the United States. Ordained a priest in 1970 in Guatemala, he taught in schools and universities administered by the Salesian priests. In 1978 he was appointed as Auxiliary Bishop of Tegucigalpa, and subsequently became Archbishop of Tegucigalpa in 1993. The cardinal has served on the executive of the powerful Episcopal Council of Latin America as Secretary (1987-1991, and as President (1995-1999), and is currently President of the Honduran Bishops Conference. Elevated to Cardinal in 2001, he played a prominent role in the Cologne G-7 Conference on World Debt and has been deeply involved in Transparency International (movement for open and accountable government). He was sharply critical of the United States' media's coverage of the clergy sexual abuse scandal, charging that the media was anti-Catholic, motivated by hatred of the Church, and that it used tactics that reminded the cardinal of Stalin and Hitler. His comments could endear Rodriguez Maradiaga to conservatives within the Vatican and help his prospects as a compromise candidate for the papacy. The fact that he comes from Latin America but is Roman trained is a plus. Given the College of Cardinals' presumed hesitancy to elect an African, Rodriguez Maradiaga may be an acceptable, more "European" developing country alternative. His relative youth could count against him though. Rodriguez Maradiaga, while a darling of the media, has fallen somewhat out of favor after frequent media ranting on issues that run from U.S. "imperialism," to the "Jewish conspiracy" controlling the media, to his own personal "suitability" to become pope -- the latter statement the mortal sin within the College of Cardinals. ------------------- AFRICA'S CANDIDATES ------------------- ¶7. (U) Africa is the fastest growing region in the world for the Church, now accounting for 11 percent of the world's Catholics. While the election of an Africa Pope would send a powerful signal throughout the continent, many European cardinals have made clear that they are not yet ready to elect a pope from a region where Catholicism's roots are still shallow. Still, two candidates have been listed among the top papal contenders. -- ARINZE, Francis: Born Nov. 1, 1932, in Eziowelle, in the Archdiocese of Onitsha, Nigeria. Ordained to the priesthood in 1958, he became professor of liturgy and taught logic and basic philosophy at Bigard Memorial Seminary at Enugu and was later appointed regional secretary for Catholic education for eastern Nigeria. After studies in London, he was named coadjutor to the archbishop of Onitsha in 1965 and ordained a bishop. Two years later he was named archbishop. In 1979 his brother bishops elected him president of the episcopal conference of Nigeria, a post he filled until 1984, when John Paul II asked him to head the Secretariat for Non-Christians (now the Pontifical Council for Inter-religious Dialogue). Arinze served as president of the Pontifical Council for Inter-religious Dialogue from May 1985 to October 2002, when he was named prefect of the Congregation of Divine Worship and the Sacraments. Arinze has faltered somewhat as Prefect of the Vatican's office for Worship and Sacraments, slowly turning more reactionary in his pronouncements and insistence of liturgical correctness. He generated headlines in the U.S. with a sharply worded speech at Georgetown's graduation ceremony in 2003. -- NAPIER, Wilfrid Fox: Born March 8, 1941, in Swartberg, South Africa, he was ordained for the Franciscans on July 25, 1970, following philosophical and theological studies at the Catholic University of Louvain, Belgium. After learning Xhosa, he worked in the parish of Lusikisiki and performed pastoral work in Tabankulu. In 1978 he was named administrator of Kokstad and appointed bishop of the same diocese on Nov. 29, 1980, receiving episcopal ordination the following Feb. 28. During the turbulent changes that marked the South African political scene, he was deeply involved in mediation and negotiation work along with other national and provincial Church leaders. He served as president of the Southern African Catholic Bishops' Conference from 1987 to 1994. In May 1992 he was promoted to archbishop of Durban and, in August 1994, was named apostolic administrator of Umzimkulu. Since November 1999, he has been president of the Southern African Catholic Bishops' Conference. He was elevated to cardinal in February 2001. He is a member of the Congregation for the Evangelization of Peoples, the Institutes of Consecrated Life and Societies of Apostolic Life, and the Special Council for Africa of the Synod of Bishops. -------------- THE ASIAN HOPE -------------- ¶8. (U) Outside of the Philippines, whose most famous cardinal, Cardinal Sin, is old and in poor health, the Church is Asia is still young and has yet to generate many senior churchmen considered papabile. The one exception appears to be India's Ivan Dias, a veteran of the Vatican's diplomatic service. DIAS, Ivan: Born April 14, 1936, in Bombay, India, Dias was ordained a priest in December 1958 and holds a doctorate in canon law from Rome's Lateran University. He entered the Holy See's diplomatic service in 1964 and was posted to the Nordic countries, Indonesia, Madagascar, Reunion, the Comorros, and Mauritius, and he also served at the Vatican's Foreign Ministry equivalent in the Secretariat of State. In May 1982 he was appointed Nuncio in Ghana, Togo and Benin, and received Episcopal ordination that year. He later served as Nuncio in Korea (1987-91) and Albania (1991-97). In November 1996 he was appointed archbishop of Bombay and was elevated to cardinal in February 2001. Cardinal Dias serves on the following curial bodies: Doctrine of the Faith, Divine Worship and the Sacraments, Catholic Education, Culture, Laity, Cultural Heritage of the Church, Economic Affairs of the Holy See, and the Council of Cardinals for the Study of Organizational and Economic Affairs of the Holy See. Dias is well respected within the College of Cardinals, and personifies the desirable amalgam of pastoral guidance of a local diocese and solid experience in the Roman Curia. ------- COMMENT ------- ¶9. (U) Predicting who will emerge from the central balcony of St. Peter's Basilica in the hour after the white smoke appears from the Sistine Chapel roof is impossible to predict, given the absence of a clear consensus candidate, the divergent regional priorities of the cardinal electors, and differing views on church leadership and pastoral style. The electors will have to decide whether they believe the next pope should continue John Paul II's theological directions, or pursue new approaches; whether he should have a worldwide vision and travel the globe like his predecessor, or be an administrator who focuses on the nuts and bolts of running the institutional church; whether, after an aged Pope, the Church needs a younger leader, capable of reinvigorating the optics of the leadership of the Holy See or a transitional figure to bridge the papacies of John Paul II and a future pontiff. In the face of these unanswered questions, it is possible that the candidate who emerges -- as happened 27 years ago -- will not be on anyone's list of papabile. ¶10. (U) Beyond all of these considerations and questions, however, the central criterion that cardinal electors will be seeking to satisfy, and perhaps the most intangible for outside observers is, as New York's Cardinal Egan observed, "a man of holiness," or, as Cardinal George of Chicago put it: "a man of deep faith, a man striving to be holy, a man faithful to Christ and his teaching, and a man who will bring them into our times." All the other factors -- age, national origins, experience, media and language abilities -- will be important, but any candidate who emerges from St. Peter's in the coming days will first need to clear this hurdle of holiness among his peers. That is why the Cardinals will enter the Sistine Chapel singing "Come Holy Spirit," and, as they face Michelangelo's Last Judgment, will pray that the spirit guides them through this maze of challenges and candidates to the right judgment for the Church's future in turbulent times. HARDT NNNN 2005VATICA00466 - Classification: UNCLASSIFIED