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Size and Duration of Empires: Growth-Decline Curves, 600 B.C. to 600 A.D.

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  04 January 2016

Rein Taagepera
Rein Taagepera*
Affiliation:
University of California, Irvine
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Extract

The first known attempt to explain the duration and supersession of dynasties through calculations was made in the first century B.C. by Tsou Yen or his disciples in China (Eberhard, 1950: 60). The calculations were astrological. The rulers’ response was inimical. Maybe this is why no further attempts were made during the next two thousand years, in spite of astrology continuing to flourish. The objectives of the present study are somewhat related to those of Tsou Yen although the calculations avoid astrology; whether that helps to avoid the opprobrium heaped on Tsou Yen’s school remains to be seen. As we tackle the period during which this school of thought was born and subsequently crushed, it is only proper to recall the memory of these spiritual ancestors.

Type
Research Article
Information
Social Science History , Volume 3 , Issue 3-4 , 1979 , pp. 115 - 138
Copyright
Copyright © Social Science History Association 1979

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